March 5, 2021

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 8)

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.11% in Q4 20201. Further disaggregation shows that the oil sector contributed 5.87% to total real GDP while the non-oil sector contributed 94.13% during the period. Although the growth rate in Q4 2020 is lower than the corresponding quarter of 2019 which was 2.55%, it represents a 3.74% improvement over the previous quarter (Q3 2020). More importantly, it is the first positive quarterly growth since the economy contracted in both the second and third quarters of 2020, thereby ending the recession experienced due to the pandemic. The growth reflects the gradual return of economic activities following the resumption of movements which limited commercial activities in the previous quarters. Considering that economic activities are returning to pre-COVID levels and COVID vaccination is underway, economic expansion is expected in the near term. However, the size of the expansion will depend on the spending choices of the government as it responds to the new and evolving challenges. As such, budgetary allocations to sectors capable of delivering an inclusive recovery such as the agriculture sector should be prioritized.

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Power sector analysis shows an increase in power generated by 15.5 percent from 3639.2 megawatt to a peak of 4196.2 megawatt between April 22, 2016 and April 29, 201612, albeit a sharp fall to 25.2 megawatts on April 23, 2016 following a system collapse13. In a bid to attain the targeted 10,000 megawatts by 2019, the Federal Government is set to complete the ongoing 47 power transmission projects across the country, which would boost power supply14. However, the delays in passing the budget into law is a major constraint to the completion of the projects. Thus government needs to speed-up the passage of the 2016 budget to provide the funds to complete the projects.