November 6, 2020

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 42)

Total geographical distribution of credit by state increased by 1.82 percent to N18.9 trillion in the second quarter of 2020 from N18.56 trillion in the first quarter of 2020.1 Lagos State (N14.92 trillion) accounted for 78.94 percent of the total credit. Further disaggregation shows N77.6 billion was distributed as loan for mortgages in 2019 compared to N25 billion in 2018. 220,935 individuals registered for the National Housing Fund, representing a 33.6 percent increase from 2018. Also, N4 trillion was distributed under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund in 2019, an increase from N2.9 trillion in 2018. The increase in credit particularly towards the agriculture sector will not only improve the living standard of beneficiaries but also enhance development through an increase in economic activities and trade; alongside building the resilience of the economy by improving the balance of payment account. However, providing loan guarantees to borrowers can considerably increase the contingent liability of the government with implications on its fiscal performance. As such, a cost-benefit analysis of these credit facility programmes and other available options to boost economic activities is required in order to determine the best approach.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 12)

The naira/dollar exchange rate remained largely stable at the parallel market at ?320/$ during the period7, albeit slight fluctuations on February 29, 2016 (?325/$) and March 2, 2016 (?328/$). The decline in the hoarding of foreign currency as well as the substantial reduction in the speculative demand for dollars were the two key factors responsible for the ease of fluctuations in the forex market8. With the slight increase in the price of crude oil, Nigerias foreign reserve slightly grew by $56 million, from 27.81 billion to $27.84 billion9. With the continued increase in the price of crude oil, a modest build-up of foreign reserve to guard against unfavourable commodity price movements is expected in the near term.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 52)

Recently released population estimate figures by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, show a significant increase in Nigerias population, based on the 2006 census. Notably, total population grew by an estimated 40 percent from 2006, to 193 million persons in 2016. Also, disaggregate demographic data from 2007 to 2016, reveals an increase in the number of males (74 million to 99 million) and females (71 million to 95 million), with a 2016 gender (males to females) percentage ratio of 51:49. The high rate of population growth can be attributed to the improvements in average annual rate of natural increase the difference between crude birth rate and death rate. As in preceding years, the composition of children and youths make up the highest share of the population growth. This presents a potential increase in the rate of labour supply. Going forward, there is need for the government to support rapid job creation in order to check the potential upsurge in unemployment rate.