Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

September 8, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 38)

NBS data on Nigerias real GDP growth rate declined from -0.36 percent in
2016Q1 to -2.06 percent in 2016Q2. With negative GDP growth rate in
two consecutive quarters, Nigeria records its first recession in 23 years. Both
the oil and non-oil sectors continued to contract by -15.59 and -0.20
percentage points, respectively, relative to preceding quarter. The worsening
growth rate in the oil sector was largely driven by the decline in domestic crude
oil production by 14.5 percent relative to preceding quarter

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 7)

Recent domestic Crude oil statistics from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), reveals an increase in total crude oil export sales in December 2016. Relative to November 2016, total export sales of crude oil rose from $166.18 million to $195.40 million in December 2016 representing 17.6 percentage (Month-on-Month) increase. The increase is attributable to a rise in crude oil production following a drastic (Year-on-Year) reduction in pipeline vandalism in the preceding month. Given that improvement in oil revenue is critical to fiscal sustainability and external balance, intensified efforts should be implemented towards the maintenance and sustainability of peace in the Niger Delta Region.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 35)

Recent report in the media highlights that Nigerias GDP has dropped to $296 billion in 2016, in contrast to the $481 billion recorded in 20151 and Nigeria has lost its position as Africas largest economy to South Africa. This conclusion was based on the computation of GDP with current naira-dollar exchange rate. However, while the naira has significantly lost its official value since the adoption of a flexible exchange rate, estimating GDP merely with a single exchange rate figure (rather than its yearly average) cannot be regarded as an appropriate method to conclude on Africas largest economy.