September 28, 2020

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 36)

 The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported a contraction in Nigeria‚Äôs Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2020.1 The report stated a contraction of -6.10% in comparison to the 1.87% growth that was recorded in the first quarter of the year. This contraction is attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, the consequential decline of output and the crashing of oil prices. Nigeria slowly recovered from recession in 2017 and has been on a gradual path towards growth. However, the current GDP contractions indicate that a second recession could be approaching. Steep declines in GDP growth calls for the diversification of the economy to stimulate growth in various areas including agriculture and agribusiness, manufacturing, and real estate. In addition, overreliance on global value chains particularly in the manufacturing sector should be curbed in order to improve resilience.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 14)

The considerable increase in inflation continued to be driven by exchange-rate-pass-through from imported items as well as the lingering scarcity in the availability of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). One of the key ways to reduce inflationary pressures in the near term is to improve the supply of PMS to filling stations. In the medium to long term, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) may need to revitalize local refining and bridge the gap between the supply and demand for PMS by households and businesses.