January 28, 2021

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 3)

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), a 0.28% month-on-month increase in the average price of Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) was recorded as the price in December 2020 increased to N224.37 from N223.74 in November 20201. Similarly, the average price for the refilling of a 5kg cylinder for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) has increased by 0.12% month-on-month to N1949.75 in December 2020 from N1947.47 in the previous month2. The results were similar regarding the refilling of a 12.5kg cylinder with a 1.75% month-on-month increase. Contrarily, the average price paid by consumers for premium motor spirit (petrol) decreased month-on-month by -0.94% to N165.70 from N167.27 in the previous month3. Overall, in month of December 2020, gas prices rose most likely as a result of rising crude oil prices in the international market. Low-income households are less likely to be affected given that their consumption of these products is relatively lower than middle- and high-income households. However, the general decline in income due to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic makes the increment nonetheless an economic burden.

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Africa Economic Update (Issue 4)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa by 0.2 percentage points, while retaining growth estimates for Nigeria and South Africa in 2017. Precisely, growth rate forecast for Africa was reduced from 2.8 percent in January 2017 forecast to 2.6 percent in April 2017 forecast while growth estimates were retained at 0.8 percent for both South Africa and Nigeria. In contrast, global economic growth outlook was increased by 0.4 percentage points from 3.1 percent to 3.5 percent within the same period. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is hampered by adverse cyclical and supply side factors, weak fiscal buffers and rising public debt amongst non-commodity exporters as well as severe drought was experienced in Eastern and Southern Africa