January 29, 2020

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 02)

Recently, oil price surpassed US$70 per barrel due to the heightened threat to energy facilities in the Middle East. As the tension between the United States and Iran increases with the US threatening to attack Iran’s oil installations, there has been a significant rise in oil prices from US$64 to US$72 between December 2019 and January 20203. Given that Nigeria’s oil price benchmark for the 2020 budget is US$57 per barrel, there are likely to be significant gains into the Excess Crude Account in the first quarter. Although the government will benefit from the rise in oil prices in the form of increased oil revenue and foreign exchange reserves, the cost of petrol subsidy will also increase. In order to take advantage of the price increase, the government should ramp up local production and begin the process of fuel subsidy removal.   

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 4)

Recently released power sector report by the National Bureau of Statistics records a total average energy generation of 2,548GWH by 25 power stations, from October 2016 to December 2016. Daily Energy generation, attained the 2016Q4 highest level of 3,859.6MW in October 2016, and a lowest level of 2522MW in the same month. On the average, current daily energy generated which is below 3,000MW, prompts system malfunctions. Thus, the irregular power generation and supply experienced in recent times is attributable to shortage of gas owing to non-functional major pipelines, in addition to the inability of GENCOs to make payments for the available gas supply. Given the recent challenges to power supply, efforts should be geared towards the diversification of electricity generation. Government should consider investment in renewable as well as coal energy to complement gas power supply.