November 3, 2017

Infrastructure Financing In Nigeria:

Similar to most sub-Saharan
African (SSA) countries, Nigeria has a huge infrastructure deficit which
considerably limits efforts towards achieving inclusive growth, sustainable
development, and poverty reduction. With infrastructure stock estimated at
20-25 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Nigerias infrastructure stock
is still significantly lower than the recommended international benchmark of 70
per cent of GDP. The 2014 National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIMP)
estimates that a total of US$ 3 trillion of investments, or US$100 billion
annually, is required over the next 30 years to bridge Nigerias infrastructure
gap. In particular, the Plan estimates that Nigeria will have to spend an
annual average of US$ 33 billion infrastructure investments for the period 2014
-2018. This means that Nigeria will have to more than double its spending on infrastructure
from the current 2-3 per cent of GDP to around 7 per cent to make appreciable
progress in infrastructure development over the next three decades.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 52)

Recently released population estimate figures by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, show a significant increase in Nigerias population, based on the 2006 census. Notably, total population grew by an estimated 40 percent from 2006, to 193 million persons in 2016. Also, disaggregate demographic data from 2007 to 2016, reveals an increase in the number of males (74 million to 99 million) and females (71 million to 95 million), with a 2016 gender (males to females) percentage ratio of 51:49. The high rate of population growth can be attributed to the improvements in average annual rate of natural increase the difference between crude birth rate and death rate. As in preceding years, the composition of children and youths make up the highest share of the population growth. This presents a potential increase in the rate of labour supply. Going forward, there is need for the government to support rapid job creation in order to check the potential upsurge in unemployment rate.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 51)

Recently released data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that there was significant increase in Nigerias total merchandise trade for 2016Q3. Basically, the total merchandise trade increased (quarter-on-quarter) by 16.29 percent to N4, 722 billion in 2016Q3;owing to 29.1 percent increase in exports and 6.2 percent rise in imports. Oil exports increased by 31 percent to N1, 943 billion, while non-oil exports increased by 20.5 percent to N440 billion. However, on the aggregate, Nigeria recorded yet another trade deficit of N104 billion, indicating continuous higher imports relative to exports. Overall, though there is improvement in the performance of non-oil sector, however, this is insufficient to effectively complement the loss in oil trade sustained since the beginning of oil price crash. This suggests that diversification into non-oil sector may not be able to rescue the economy in the short term. However, while the diversification efforts should be sustained, eliminating hurdles in oil production may be instrumental to higher exports, especially as oil price increase is gaining momentum.