According to the World Bank, the Nigerian currency (naira) has depreciated by almost 40% since the beginning of 2023. The depreciation is not only limited to Nigeria. Other African countries' currencies also depreciated, although at a low rate. The top five worst-performing currencies identified by the World Bank are Nigeria (40%), South Sudan (33%), Burundi (27%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (18%), and Kenya (16%). Nigeria operates multiple exchange rates: the official rate and the parallel rate.
According to the latest Transport Fare Watch of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), transportation costs increased significantly in August 2023. The average fare paid by bus passengers within the city increased by 121.81% year-on-year from N602.48 in August 2022 to N1,336.38 in August 2023. Similarly, the average fare paid by commuters for intercity bus journeys rose by 56.6% year-on-year from N3,779.96 in August 2022 to N5,918.18 in August 2023. The rising transport costs could be attributed to the removal of subsidies on petrol. While the development is expected to improve the government's fiscal position, it imposes a heavy financial burden on citizens.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publication on Terms of Trade (TOT) shows a deterioration in Q2 2023. Term of Trade measures the relative price of imports to exports. In April, it was 100.8 and reduced to 100.72 in May. It further reduced to 100.67 in June. As a result, TOT reduced by 0.13 percent on average in Q2 2023.
Data from the September 2023 report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
shows that Nigeria’s oil output rose by 9.3% from 1.08 mb/d recorded in July to 1.18 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August 2023. However, oil output still falls short of the 1.74 mb/d quota allocated to Nigeria by OPEC and far below the 1.69 mb/d assumed in the 2023 budget. In June 2023, OPEC reduced Nigeria’s future quota by over 20% from 1.74 mb/d to 1.38 mb/d , and the new quota will become effective from January 2024 if the output level remains low. This data on crude oil production indicates that Nigeria is not getting the maximum fiscal buffer associated with the recent rise in crude oil, which is above $90 per barrel.
According to the rail transport data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Q2 2023, the volume of goods/cargos transported for Q2 2023 reached 56,029 tons, compared to 31,197 tons in Q2 2022, showcasing a substantial growth trend. Similarly, goods/cargo revenue collected in Q2 2023 was N188.03 million, up by 105.04% from N91.70 million in Q2 2022.