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January Macroeconomic Snapshot

In Q3 2024, total capital importation into Nigeria declined by 51.90%, dropping to $1,252.66 million from $2,604.50 million in Q2 2024. Portfolio investments ranked highest at $899.31 million (71.79%), followed by other investments at $249.53 million (19.92%), while foreign direct investment accounted for $103.82 million (8.29%). Sector-wise, the banking sector led with $579.48 million, followed by financing at $294.55 million and production/manufacturing at $189.22 million.

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 1

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Naira appreciated by 7.62 percent from ₦1661.12 to a US Dollar on 2nd December 2024 to ₦1534.56 to a US Dollar on 3rd January 2025. Since the unification of exchange rates in June 2023, the Naira has been fluctuating. In 2024, the local currency lost about 41 percent of its value against the dollar in the official market, despite a rise in external reserves in the same period. The recent appreciation of the Naira comes a month after the implementation of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), which was officially launched on 2nd December 2024 to reduce speculation and enhance transparency in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market. With a strengthened domestic currency, it is expected that prices would fall in the short term, especially given that Nigeria is a highly import-dependent country. If the appreciation is sustained over time, it enables the country to concurrently service foreign currency-denominated debts and supply demanded liquidity in the foreign exchange market. To ensure a stable and strong Naira, there is a need to maintain sustainable debt levels, reduce reliance on imports, and boost foreign reserves by increasing exports. Also, there is a need to create a business-friendly climate for foreign investors to attract foreign exchange inflow.

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 50

The Electricity on Demand report by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) revealed that in the third quarter of 2024, energy generation stood at 9,450.76 GWh, marking a 674.21 GWh increase from the 8,776.55 GWh recorded in the previous quarter. Average hourly energy generation also rose by 6.51% quarter-on-quarter, from 4,018.57 MWh in Q2 2024 to 4,280.24 MWh/h. This increase in energy generation was driven by enhanced generation capacity. The average generation capacity of nineteen out of the twenty-eight grid-connected power plants grew by 16.04%, rising from 4,395.77 MW in Q2 2024 to 5,100.90 MW in the quarter under review. This growth is expected to result in improved energy supply, as higher generation capacity can reduce power outages, enhance energy reliability for businesses and households, and promote better utilization of existing infrastructure. It can also stimulate economic growth and foster job creation in related sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and services. In response, the government should review existing laws with a view of amending those that deter private sector participation in the energy sector to boost generation and modernization of the distribution systems. Also, the government need to invest in upgrading and expanding transmission networks to ensure a more reliable electricity supply. Additionally, there is a need to invest in renewable energy projects that promote hybrid (solar, wind, and hydro) energy solutions in grid-connected plants.

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 48

The inflation expectations survey report by the Central Bank of Nigeria revealed that 85.1% of households and 80.7% of businesses believe the current inflation rate is high, with households primarily driving this sentiment. Inflation perception refers to how individuals or groups understand, interpret, and feel about the current rate of inflation. It reflects subjective views on how changes in the prices of goods and services affect purchasing power. The report shows that large businesses had the highest inflation perception in November at 87%, followed by micro businesses at 82.3%, medium businesses at 79.4%, and small businesses at 78.4%. By settlement type, urban residents reported a higher inflation perception (85.5%) than rural residents (84.4%). Among households, those earning between ₦100,000 and ₦150,000 per month had the highest inflation perception at 88.7%, while those earning above ₦200,000 had the lowest. Key drivers of inflation perception include rising energy and transportation costs, insecurity, and exchange rate depreciation. High inflation perception can weaken consumer and business confidence, widen income inequality, and exacerbate the rural-urban divide, potentially fueling economic dissatisfaction and social unrest. For businesses, heightened inflation perception could result in job cuts, undermining monetary policy effectiveness and stalling economic growth. To tame inflation expectations, the government needs to prioritize targeted reforms in key sectors including energy and transportation. Additionally, the government needs to implement policies to stabilize the naira and provide support to the most vulnerable households

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 47

The inflation expectations survey report by the Central Bank of Nigeria revealed that 85.1% of households and 80.7% of businesses believe the current inflation rate is high, with households primarily driving this sentiment. Inflation perception refers to how individuals or groups understand, interpret, and feel about the current rate of inflation. It reflects subjective views on how changes in the prices of goods and services affect purchasing power. The report shows that large businesses had the highest inflation perception in November at 87%, followed by micro businesses at 82.3%, medium businesses at 79.4%, and small businesses at 78.4%. By settlement type, urban residents reported a higher inflation perception (85.5%) than rural residents (84.4%). Among households, those earning between ₦100,000 and ₦150,000 per month had the highest inflation perception at 88.7%, while those earning above ₦200,000 had the lowest. Key drivers of inflation perception include rising energy and transportation costs, insecurity, and exchange rate depreciation. High inflation perception can weaken consumer and business confidence, widen income inequality, and exacerbate the rural-urban divide, potentially fueling economic dissatisfaction and social unrest. For businesses, heightened inflation perception could result in job cuts, undermining monetary policy effectiveness and stalling economic growth. To tame inflation expectations, the government needs to prioritize targeted reforms in key sectors including energy and transportation. Additionally, the government needs to implement policies to stabilize the naira and provide support to the most vulnerable households.

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