This policy insight synthesises the findings of six sub-Saharan African country case studies, analysing their government policy responses to the trade and employment shocks prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Vulnerability to the shock was most pronounced in the wealthier, more open, diversified and formalised economies (South Africa and Senegal); in Nigeria, where trade and government balances are very sensitive to oil price fluctuations; and in Uganda, which reacted with a strict domestic lockdown.

By contrast, growth decelerated only marginally in Benin and Tanzania, where government reactions were minimal or delayed. The capacity to offer a counter fiscal stimulus, liquidity support through loan guarantees and concessional debt, and an accommodative monetary policy depends on the income status of the economy, depth of financial markets, size of the government sector, and access to global development finance channels.

South Africa and Senegal were able to put into effect the most substantive stimulus packages, while Nigeria was constrained by having the smallest and most volatile tax base and a high bank liquidity profile. Save for Benin and Uganda, which devoted half their stimulus package to health spending, most countries concentrated on industry support and tax relief. Here South Africa was an outlier, instead using 60% of its package for unemployment and social security benefits owing to a sharp rise in unemployment and food stress.

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African indigenous businesses (AIBs) are in the nascent stages of becoming data-driven and innovative through data analytics. The data-driven agenda looks promising in industries like manufacturing (distribution), health, agriculture, and online platforms like social media, with enterprises deriving economic and symbolic value from descriptive, diagnostic, and predictive analytics. These data-driven activities tend to be often directly or indirectly enabled by the quest of multinational companies, who as business partners or collaborators of AIBs seek to mutually maximise value-generating activities. Thus, these multinational companies play a key role in creating awareness of the value of data and providing the motivation, and sometimes the technical and human resources, to enable AIBs to develop data analytics capabilities.

Concerning constraints, there is generally a lack of awareness regarding the value of data. AIBs are challenged in providing auxiliary resources and processes for a data-driven agenda (i.e., recruiting the right skillsets, acquiring logistics, paying for software licenses, and meeting regulatory standards, among others). Further, some are yet to scale above existing digitalisation barriers.

This brief was authored by Richard Boateng, Adedeji Adeniran, and Sone Osakwe

This brief provides an analytical snapshot of the economy and public finances in Nigeria. It is based on publicly available data produced by the Government of Nigeria, and a range of secondary analyses. It is part of a package of 6 country briefs commissioned by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) and is intended to provide a common analytical backdrop to BMGF programming in the country.

_{The lead authors of this brief are Owen Willcox, Dumebi Ubogu, Adedeji Adeniran, Mma Ekeruche, Dozie Okoye, Sone Osakwe and Gbadebo Odularu.}

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges for the African continent in achieving peace, justice and inclusive and effective institutions, including significant negative effects on economic, social and political conditions. This policy brief presents and discusses key trends on SDG 16 on the African continent, including: an increasing concentration and strengthening of executive power; shrinking civic space and enlarged restrictions on civil liberties and media independence; disproportionate effects for women and other vulnerable groups; the worsening of conflict triggers; and declining trust in institutions and rising corruption. To reverse these trends and strengthen progress towards the goal, this policy brief recommends that the digitalization process must be accelerated; social protection of vulnerable groups must be ensured; and institutional accountability structures must be built to strengthen public trust as a means to better support inclusive recovery efforts. 

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Out-of-school children (OOSC) has long been a global problem that affects a country in various ramifications. With 10.5 million OOSC, Nigeria is recognised to have the largest number of children not attending school in the world. The economic and social repercussions of not educating these children in Nigeria are examined in this brief. Exploratory data analysis and empirical estimation reveal the following facts:

• Economic costs due to OOSC in Nigeria is estimated to be about US$40 billion in modest terms.

• A higher number of rural dwelling children do not go to school as compared to the children living in the urban areas in Nigeria.

• Income poverty keeps more children out of school.

• The Northeast geo-political zone has the largest percentage of OOSC in Nigeria.