In Q3 2024, total capital importation into Nigeria declined by 51.90%, dropping to $1,252.66 million from $2,604.50 million in Q2 2024. Portfolio investments ranked highest at $899.31 million (71.79%), followed by other investments at $249.53 million (19.92%), while foreign direct investment accounted for $103.82 million (8.29%). Sector-wise, the banking sector led with $579.48 million, followed by financing at $294.55 million and production/manufacturing at $189.22 million.

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Naira appreciated by 7.62 percent from ₦1661.12 to a US Dollar on 2nd December 2024 to ₦1534.56 to a US Dollar on 3rd January 2025. Since the unification of exchange rates in June 2023, the Naira has been fluctuating. In 2024, the local currency lost about 41 percent of its value against the dollar in the official market, despite a rise in external reserves in the same period. The recent appreciation of the Naira comes a month after the implementation of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), which was officially launched on 2nd December 2024 to reduce speculation and enhance transparency in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market. With a strengthened domestic currency, it is expected that prices would fall in the short term, especially given that Nigeria is a highly import-dependent country. If the appreciation is sustained over time, it enables the country to concurrently service foreign currency-denominated debts and supply demanded liquidity in the foreign exchange market. To ensure a stable and strong Naira, there is a need to maintain sustainable debt levels, reduce reliance on imports, and boost foreign reserves by increasing exports. Also, there is a need to create a business-friendly climate for foreign investors to attract foreign exchange inflow.

The rising spate of inflation in Nigeria has become worrisome in recent years, considering its implications on the quest for tourism development in the country. This study, therefore, empirically evaluates the effect of inflation on the Nigerian tourism industry. Two tourism indicators (tourism arrivals and tourism receipt) are employed in this study for robustness and quarterly data on relevant variables for the period between 1995Q1 and 2020Q4 were analysed using different econometric approaches. The results of all the estimation methods unanimously revealed a trade-off between inflation and the two tourism indicators, signalling that inflation dissuades international tourist arrival and lower tourism revenue in Nigeria. Hence, the Nigerian monetary authority must ensure price stability by keeping the inflation rate at a desirable level in a bid to foster tourism development in the country.

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Authors: Isiaka Raifu Akande and Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi

Key messages
• Nigeria's exports are recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, but they remain heavily
reliant on raw products, particularly oil and gas, which account for over 80% of export
earnings.
• The country faces challenges in trade competitiveness, including low product
diversification, limited value addition, and inefficiencies in logistics and
infrastructure.
• Stabilizing the national currency and broadening the tax base are crucial for
improving Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment and reducing vulnerability to external
shocks.
• Simplifying trade procedures, improving road quality, and expanding shipping and
logistics services can ease the movement of goods and lower business costs.

AUTHORS

Anthony Okon; Chukwuka Onyekwena ; Bilkis Ceesay and Isatou Jallow 
 

This policy brief was prepared by the participants during a training on Trade Competitiveness and Regional Value Chain Analysis, held in Banjul (The Gambia) from 23 to 27 September 2024.

The Electricity on Demand report by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) revealed that in the third quarter of 2024, energy generation stood at 9,450.76 GWh, marking a 674.21 GWh increase from the 8,776.55 GWh recorded in the previous quarter. Average hourly energy generation also rose by 6.51% quarter-on-quarter, from 4,018.57 MWh in Q2 2024 to 4,280.24 MWh/h. This increase in energy generation was driven by enhanced generation capacity. The average generation capacity of nineteen out of the twenty-eight grid-connected power plants grew by 16.04%, rising from 4,395.77 MW in Q2 2024 to 5,100.90 MW in the quarter under review. This growth is expected to result in improved energy supply, as higher generation capacity can reduce power outages, enhance energy reliability for businesses and households, and promote better utilization of existing infrastructure. It can also stimulate economic growth and foster job creation in related sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and services. In response, the government should review existing laws with a view of amending those that deter private sector participation in the energy sector to boost generation and modernization of the distribution systems. Also, the government need to invest in upgrading and expanding transmission networks to ensure a more reliable electricity supply. Additionally, there is a need to invest in renewable energy projects that promote hybrid (solar, wind, and hydro) energy solutions in grid-connected plants.

According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria's total foreign reserves stood at $40.79 billion on December 19, 2024, up 1.24% from $40.29 billion on the same day the previous month. Compared to December 19, 2023, the nation's reserves increased by 24.36 percent from $32.8 billion in the same period in 2024. The data also shows that the reserves hit its highest level on December 10, 2021, when it was at $40.89 billion. This gain in foreign reserves follows a drop below $34 billion earlier in 2024, when reserves were adversely affected by foreign exchange market pressure and global oil market uncertainty. The CBN's policy reforms to increase remittance inflows, as well as its engagements with International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) and Nigeria's diaspora, all contributed considerably to the increase in reserves. While an increase in reserves is crucial for economic development, a continuous increase at a desirable level is required to signal the nation's financial strength and stability to investors, resulting in increased foreign investment and economic progress. To boost external reserves, the government must expand exports, maintain sustainable levels of foreign debt, and improve its investment climate.

Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), can significantly influence biodiversity conservation based on their design and implementation. While AfCFTA may encourage countries to strengthen environmental regulations in line with international agreements like the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and CITES, there are concerns that economic goals might overshadow ecological considerations. This could lead to industrial growth in agriculture and mining, risking deforestation, soil erosion, and water pollution. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this study employs the Energy-Environment Integrated CGE (EEICGE) Model to analyze AfCFTA’s impacts on Africa's biodiversity. Simulation results for Nigeria indicate a rise in fossil fuel demand and carbon emissions. Stakeholder insights reveal that increased trade may drive intensified land use, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. The study underscores that the impact of AfCFTA on biodiversity is contingent on specific provisions, enforcement capacities, and implementation contexts. To ensure FTAs support sustainable development, strategic measures are vital, including robust environmental regulation enforcement, local community engagement, and investment in renewable energy to meet rising energy needs while adhering to global commitments like the Paris Agreement.

AUTHORS: Augustine Iraoya, Chukwuka Onyekwena, David Okorie, Adedeji Adeniran

This paper was first published HERE

The National Bureau of Statistics' report showed that in the third quarter of 2024, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46%, representing a 0.92 percentage point rise from the 2.54% recorded in Q3 2023. The non-oil sector, the largest contributor to GDP, grew by 3.37% in Q3 2024. Growth in the non-oil sector was driven by financial institutions, information and communication technology, agriculture, and trade, among other sectors.

In Africa, the digital economy, which refers to all economic activities facilitated by digital technologies and big data, is booming. This is a result of digital technology’s capability to transform economies and societies, influencing how we work, live, and interact. Africa’s digital economy is a boost to the continent’s economy. International Finance Corporation (2020) reveals that Africa’s digital economy grew from $100 billion to $115 billion, representing a 15% increase between 2019 and 2020. It further projects that Africa’s digital economy has the potential to contribute $180 billion and $712 billion to the continent’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025 and 2050, respectively.

The role of data, in the public and private sectors, is central to informing strategy, shaping decision and policy-making, creating value, driving innovation, sustaining profit-making and promoting economic development.

This Brief was written by Kunle Balogun