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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 42

According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, the cost of a healthy diet (CoHD) for September 2024 was N1,346 per adult per day, a 7.3% increase from N1,255 in August. The CoHD represents the most affordable mix of locally available foods that satisfy global dietary guidelines. It estimates that an adult would need to spend about N1,346 daily to maintain a nutritious diet. The increase indicates growing concerns about affordability as Nigerians face rising cost challenges while trying to maintain their dietary requirements amid inflationary pressures. Regional analysis revealed the South-West had the highest CoHD at N1,598 while the North-West had the lowest at N1,144. At the State level, Osun had the most expensive CoHD at N1,661, while Katsina had the least expensive CoHD at N1,043. The cost of a nutritious diet has increased more rapidly since July 2023, signalling pressure on items included in a healthy diet. The main factors contributing to the increase in CoHD are legumes, nuts, seeds, starchy staples, and animal-source foods, alongside issues in the supply chain, the cost of food production, and rising demand for nutritious food. Monitoring CoHD offers insights into inflation dynamics specific to essential food as high CoHD could guide interventions in nutrition. For example, improving supply chains for costly food groups or boosting agricultural production could reduce costs. These data-driven strategies could enhance food security and support access, especially in high-cost regions or food categories.

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 41

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' recent Transport Fare Watch report, the average fare paid by commuters for bus journeys within cities per drop increased by 3.45% month-on-month (MoM), from N869 in August to ₦899 in September 2024. Similarly, the average fare for intercity bus journeys per drop rose by 0.22% MoM, from ₦7,159 in August 2024 to ₦7,175 in September 2024. On a year-on-year basis, intercity fares increased by 21.26% from ₦5,917 in September 2023. Air travel fares also recorded a 0.8% MoM increase, rising from N123,700 in August to ₦"124,693 in September 2024. The fare for Okada (motorcycle) transport, saw a 1.4% MoM increase, from ₦524 in August 2024 to ₦532 in September 2024.This consistent rise in transport fares is primarily due to the removal of fuel subsidies, which led to higher fuel and energy-related costs. Additionally, rising insecurity on major roads has further contributed to increased transport costs, as drivers often avoid these routes or incur additional expenses for security measures. Rising transport costs could lead to an increase in the price of goods and services transported interstate over long distances. Likewise, rising transport costs would reduce the purchasing power and disposable income of the average Nigerian. To address these challenges, the government should consider stabilizing fuel prices, strengthening public transport infrastructure, and enhancing security measures to protect lives and property on major roads across Nigeria

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November Macroeconomic Snapshot

In October 2024, the inflation rate (CPI) rose to 33.80%, up from 32.70% recorded in September 2024, marking a 1.18 percentage point increase from the previous month. This increase also extended to food inflation, which saw a rise reaching 39.16% from 37.77% recorded in September, indicating a 1.39 percentage point increase. Urban inflation also saw a rise, climbing to 36.38%, while rural inflation rose to 31.59%, representing month-on-month increases of 1.24 and 1.10 percentage points, respectively. Notably, the country's foreign reserves aslo saw a monthly average rise of 1.20%, reaching a total of $40.26 billion.

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 40

According to the Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG)/Cooking Gas Price Watch of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the average retail price for refilling a 5 kg cylinder of liquefied petroleum gas (cooking gas) increased by 4.19% month-on month from N6,430.02 in August 2024 to N6,699.63 in September 2024. However, it rose by 59.90% year-on-year when compared to N4,189.96 in September 2023. Zonal analysis revealed that the North-East had the highest price for refilling a 5-kg cylinder of cooking gas at N6,929.02, followed by the South-East at N6,893.47 and the North-West at N6,382.30. At the state level, Rivers recorded the highest average price for refilling a 5-kg cylinder of cooking gas at N7,271.88 and Borno at N7,089.72. Conversely, Kebbi had the lowest price at N5,950.00, with Kano at N6,133.33 and Benue at N6,143.52. Unchecked inflation negatively impacted the price increase. The rising cost of cooking gas significantly challenges the livelihood of Nigerians, necessitating government intervention to lessen the burden on low-income households. Specifically, there is a significant need for increased support for local gas production, a reduction in taxes and levies on local gas production, and the promotion of alternative cooking energies sources for households.

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 39

The recent Nigerian capital importation report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that the total value of capital importation stood at $2.6 billion in Q2 2024, indicating a 22.85% decline from the $3.4 billion recorded in the previous quarter. By type, portfolio investments recorded the highest value at $1.4 billion, accounting for 53.93% of the total, while other investments stood at $1.2 billion (44.92%). Foreign direct investments (FDI) recorded the least volume at $29.8 million, accounting for about 1.2% of the total capital importation in Q2 2024. Sector-wise, the banking sector saw the highest inflow, with US$1.1 billion (43.15%), followed by the production/manufacturing sector at US$624.7 million (23.99%) and the trading sector at US$569.2million (21.86%). Additionally, the report revealed that the highest capital importation came from the United Kingdom, accounting for 43.01% of the total, valued at US$1,120.15 million, followed by the Netherlands at 22.19% (US$577.82 million) and South Africa at 9.83% (US$255.98 million). FDI, which contributed the least, recorded a 74.97% decrease quarter-on-quarter,driven by macroeconomic uncertainty characterised by high inflation rate and exchange rate volatility. Persistent insecurity and fragile business environments leading to a decline in investors’ confidence might have contributed to the decline in FDI. To reverse this trend, the government must develop policies that promote macroeconomic stability, ensure forex liquidity, and create favourable business environments.

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