According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) report, Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production in January (based on direct communications) was 1.539 million bpd, an increase of 54,000 bpd (3.64%) from 1.485 million bpd recorded in December 2024. The report revealed that Nigeria exceeded its OPEC quota (of 1.5 million bpd) by 39,000 bpd. This commendable increase, however, falls short of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) production target, which is set at a minimum of 2.1 million bpd for 2025. A 26.71% increase in crude oil production from the current level is required to meet this NUPRC target. The report further revealed that crude oil prices increased to US$80.14 per barrel in January 2025, up from US$74.22 per barrel recorded in December 2024, representing a 7.98% month on-month increase. With crude oil prices largely determined externally, one way to improve oil revenue (a major source of revenue and FX for the country) is to boost upstream activities and expand the country’s crude oil production capacity. There is a need to sustain and exceed the production level, to demand a higher quota from OPEC. To boost production levels, several policies should be implemented to attract investment, including full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). Also, there is a need to strengthen efforts to curb oil theft and pipeline vandalism by deploying technology such as the Advanced Cargo Declaration regime to track and prevent such activities.

Policymakers in Nigeria grapple with so many uncertainties from multiple directions, which make the prioritization of necessary interventions a daunting task. One of such uncertainties is the current food security situation in the country as a consequence of violent clashes among farmers and herders. The farmer-herder conflict with its far-reaching impact is driven by transhumance and competition over shrinking natural resources, exacerbated by a combination of factors such as climate change, drought, desertification, and growth in human and livestock population. The protracted nature of the clashes has adversely affected both tenure and food securities in northcentral Nigeria, especially in Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa and Niger states (the hub of food production in the country). Aside its extensive impact on food and nutrition security, it is estimated that Nigeria loses about USD 14 billion (N5.04 trillion) annually to the farmers-herders’ skirmishes.

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In recent decades, scholars have increasingly focused on the effects of trade openness on economic performance worldwide, particularly in emerging nations. This results from globalization and a rise in regional, plurilateral, and multilateral trade agreements. The establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995 signified the most significant international trade reform since the conclusion of the Second World War, as these reforms facilitated integration deemed essential for the transition from autarky to an open economy (World Trade Organization, 2025; Zahonogo, 2016). In theory, more trade openness in an economy promotes technical transfer, innovation, and economic performance. This rationale has prompted developing nations to embrace a more liberalized trade framework due to the poor performance of trade policy strategies (Udeagha and Ngepah, 2021). Nonetheless, despite the theoretical connection, prior studies exhibit varied outcomes indicating that trade openness may either bolster or impede on economic performance. The correlation between trade openness and economic performance is significantly affected by the factor endowments of various countries, with effects differing among nations, although economic integration generally promotes global economic growth (Wani et al., 2023). Akinlo and Okunlola (2021) confirmed that trade openness has a detrimental influence on growth

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In January 2025, the inflation rate (CPI) dropped to 24.48% from 34.80% in December 2024, marking a 10.32 percentage point decrease. Food inflation also declined, falling 13.75 percentage points to 26.08% from 39.84% the previous month. Additionally, urban inflation dropped to 26.09%, while rural inflation decreased to 22.15%. 

Advanced economies continue to adopt and embed digitalization into their everyday activities. One may ponder; how does a significant digitalization upgrade affect developing economies? To answer this question and highlight the economic & environmental effects of digitalization in a developing economy, this study adopts the singly-country dynamic Energy and Environment Integrated computable general equilibrium model (EEICGE) with a 5-year gradual digitalization policy plan design in Nigeria, a developing economy. 

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The Nigeria Exchange (NGX) weekly market report for the week ending February 14, 2025, reflected a positive performance. The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) appreciated by 2.00% to close at 108,053.95 points, up from the previous week’s level. Similarly, the market capitalisation increased by 2.78% to N67.418 trillion, reinforcing strong investor confidence and sustained market momentum. Sectoral performance was mixed, as most indices recorded gains, except for the NGX Main Board, NGX Banking, NGX AFR Bank Value, NGX AFR Div Yield, NGX MERI Growth, NGX Consumer Goods, and NGX Oil & Gas indices, which declined by 0.79%, 0.24%, 0.39%, 1.26%, 1.03%, 3.63%, and 2.30%, respectively. Meanwhile, the NGX Sovereign Bond index remained unchanged, indicating stability in that segment. The continued growth in the equity market suggests improving investor sentiment, likely driven by factors such as enhanced liquidity, corporate earnings expectations and favourable macroeconomic conditions. However, for long-term market stability and sustained growth, strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals is crucial. Key focus areas include exchange rate stability, sustainable debt management, corporate transparency, and improved financial data availability. Addressing these factors will further enhance investor confidence and support the positive trajectory of the Nigerian stock market

According to the Stanbic IBTC Bank purchasing managers index report, Nigerian private sector activity increased by 1.8 points, rising from 52.7 in December 2024 to 54.5 in January 2025. This marks the second consecutive month above the 50.0 threshold and represents the fastest growth rate since April 2022. By interpretation, a reading below 50 indicates a decline in private sector activity, a reading of 50 reflects stability while a reading above 50 signals expansion and higher productivity. The recovery that began in December gained further momentum in January, driven by increased business purchasing activity, which boosted input acquisition and production. Companies also benefited from faster supplier deliveries and remained optimistic, showing greater confidence than in December 2024. Although inflation remained high due to exchange rate depreciation and rising costs of raw materials and transportation, the increase in PMI suggests that businesses are investing more in inputs and production, which could lead to higher output and employment. Such increased purchasing activity could lead to higher demand for goods and services, which could still put an upward pressure on the prices of goods and services and potentially affect inflation. To sustain this momentum, policy measures such as tax relief and subsidies should be introduced to support small and medium-sized enterprises. Additionally, improving transport and logistics infrastructure would enhance supply chain efficiency and help stabilize costs.

Reliance on fossil fuels for energy is a major contributor to climate change. Climate change has wide-ranging effects on various sectors of the economy, as well as on animal and human populations. A recent counterfactual analysis conducted by Kahn et al. [1] revealed that even a moderate increase in global temperature by 0.04OC could result in a substantial 7 % contraction of the global economy by the year 2100. In addition, Sattar et al. [2] conducted a comprehensive review of the effects of climate change on wildlife animals. They highlighted that climate change significantly disrupts the dynamic conditions of biomass production, trophic interactions, ecosystem balance and hydrological equilibrium. 

Authors: Isiaka Akande Raifu, Fidelis Ademola Obaniyi, Great Nnamani, Abdulkhalid Anda Salihu

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According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) January Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria’s average daily crude oil output stood at 1.485 million in December 2024. The oil output lagged the Federal Government's 2024 budgeted benchmark of 1.78 million bpd and the OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd. Also, there was a decline in Crude oil prices to US$74.22 in December 2024 from US$75.38 per barrel in November, representing a 1.5% month-on-month decline. The country's inability to meet the government's projected production level can be attributed to multiple factors, including aging infrastructure, underinvestment, and oil theft which continue to result in low production. A combination of low production levels and a decline in crude oil prices would result in lower government finances. Specifically, the country's inability to meet the quotas could have a detrimental impact on national reserves and revenue, reducing resources availability to finance developmental projects in the country. Thus, the government must strengthen efforts against oil theft and bunkering by working with local communities and imposing harsher penalties for unlawful operations in oil-producing communities. The government also needs to strengthen existing investment policies to attract private investors who can invest in modern-day oil facilities or infrastructure to increase oil production.