According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s total merchandise trade reached ₦36,604.83 billion in Q4 2024, representing a 68.3% increase compared to the ₦21,747.40 billion recorded in Q4 2023 and a 2.20% rise from Q3 2024. Exports, which accounted for 54.68% of total trade, stood at ₦20,014.33 billion, reflecting a 57.67% increase from Q4 2023 but a 2.55% decline compared to the ₦20,537.17 billion recorded in Q3 2024. Meanwhile, imports in Q4 2024 amounted to ₦16,590.51 billion, making up 45.32% of total trade. This represented an 8.57% increase from Q3 2024 and an 83.24% surge compared to Q4 2023. The trade surplus for the quarter stood at ₦3,423.82 billion. Despite this positive trajectory, Nigeria's trade remains heavily reliant on crude oil exports. In Q4 2024, crude oil exports contributed approximately 68.87% (₦13.78 trillion) of total exports, while non-crude oil exports accounted for 31.13% (₦6.23 trillion). The continued dominance of crude oil in Nigeria’s trade structure poses significant economic risks, as it makes the economy vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations and external shocks. The non-oil export sector continues to face challenges such as low competitiveness, infrastructure deficits, and limited market access. To enhance and sustain Nigeria’s trade position, economic diversification is essential. Strengthening local manufacturing, improving infrastructure and reducing trade bottlenecks are essential policy steps that can help build a more resilient and balanced trade economy in the long run.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria, at its 299th meeting held on February 19th and 20th, 2025, resolved to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50% and maintain the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points. The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for deposit money banks and merchant banks was also maintained at 50% and 16%, respectively, while the liquidity ratio remained at 30%. The committee cited recent positive macroeconomic developments, including improvements in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market and the stabilization of petroleum prices, as key reasons for its decision. Additionally, the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics, aimed at reflecting current economic realities, provided the committee with updated insights on price stability, influencing its decision to hold rates steady. While maintaining the rates could support foreign exchange market stability and attract foreign investment, it also presents potential drawbacks. High borrowing costs may slow economic expansion, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises. Therefore, while monetary tightening is essential for price stability, a gradual reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) is necessary to enhance liquidity for businesses, stimulate domestic investment, and drive job creation. Furthermore, the government should strengthen non-oil export sectors to reduce import dependency and sustain exchange rate stability.

According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) report, Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production in January (based on direct communications) was 1.539 million bpd, an increase of 54,000 bpd (3.64%) from 1.485 million bpd recorded in December 2024. The report revealed that Nigeria exceeded its OPEC quota (of 1.5 million bpd) by 39,000 bpd. This commendable increase, however, falls short of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) production target, which is set at a minimum of 2.1 million bpd for 2025. A 26.71% increase in crude oil production from the current level is required to meet this NUPRC target. The report further revealed that crude oil prices increased to US$80.14 per barrel in January 2025, up from US$74.22 per barrel recorded in December 2024, representing a 7.98% month on-month increase. With crude oil prices largely determined externally, one way to improve oil revenue (a major source of revenue and FX for the country) is to boost upstream activities and expand the country’s crude oil production capacity. There is a need to sustain and exceed the production level, to demand a higher quota from OPEC. To boost production levels, several policies should be implemented to attract investment, including full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). Also, there is a need to strengthen efforts to curb oil theft and pipeline vandalism by deploying technology such as the Advanced Cargo Declaration regime to track and prevent such activities.

In January 2025, the inflation rate (CPI) dropped to 24.48% from 34.80% in December 2024, marking a 10.32 percentage point decrease. Food inflation also declined, falling 13.75 percentage points to 26.08% from 39.84% the previous month. Additionally, urban inflation dropped to 26.09%, while rural inflation decreased to 22.15%. 

The Nigeria Exchange (NGX) weekly market report for the week ending February 14, 2025, reflected a positive performance. The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) appreciated by 2.00% to close at 108,053.95 points, up from the previous week’s level. Similarly, the market capitalisation increased by 2.78% to N67.418 trillion, reinforcing strong investor confidence and sustained market momentum. Sectoral performance was mixed, as most indices recorded gains, except for the NGX Main Board, NGX Banking, NGX AFR Bank Value, NGX AFR Div Yield, NGX MERI Growth, NGX Consumer Goods, and NGX Oil & Gas indices, which declined by 0.79%, 0.24%, 0.39%, 1.26%, 1.03%, 3.63%, and 2.30%, respectively. Meanwhile, the NGX Sovereign Bond index remained unchanged, indicating stability in that segment. The continued growth in the equity market suggests improving investor sentiment, likely driven by factors such as enhanced liquidity, corporate earnings expectations and favourable macroeconomic conditions. However, for long-term market stability and sustained growth, strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals is crucial. Key focus areas include exchange rate stability, sustainable debt management, corporate transparency, and improved financial data availability. Addressing these factors will further enhance investor confidence and support the positive trajectory of the Nigerian stock market