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October Macroeconomic Snapshot

The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in Q1 2024, up from 5.0% in the previous quarter, while youth unemployment slightly decreased to 8.0%. The labour force participation rate dropped to 77.3% from 79.5%, this was followed by a fall in the employment-to-population ratio to 73.2%. Informal employment remained relatively steady at 92.7%, with the share of self-employed workers dipping to 84%. Urban unemployment increased to 6.5%, and rural unemployment remained at 4.3%

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 35

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's total goods trade stood at ₦31,892.46 billion in Q2 2024, down 3.76% from the previous quarter but up 150.39% from the number reported in Q2 2023. Exports accounted for 60.89% of overall trade, worth ₦19,418.93 billion. Nigeria's export trade was dominated by crude oil (₦14,559.56 billion), accounting for 74.98% of total trade, followed by agricultural goods (₦973.69 billion), raw materials (₦366.91 billion), solid minerals (₦58.56 billion) and manufactured goods (₦480.82 billion). Total imports accounted for 39.11% of total commerce in Q2 2024, totaling ₦12,473.53 billion, a 10.71% decline from Q1 2024. Mineral fuels were the most popular import category, followed by machinery and transportation equipment, chemicals, and allied items, which accounted for 35.40%, 23.08% and 15.12% of total imports respectively. While a decrease in imports may help reduce trade deficits and highlight Nigeria's improving export strength relative to import demand, it also implies slower economic activity or limited access to vital imports such as machinery and transportation equipment. Furthermore, Nigeria's strong reliance on oil exports, which account for nearly 75% of total commerce, indicates that the country's trade performance is extremely vulnerable to global oil price swings, and demand changes. The government must devote its attention to diversification policies that will improve the contribution of non-oil sectors to Nigeria's export base such as agriculture, raw materials, solid minerals and manufactured goods to promote economic stability and resilience to external shocks. 

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 34

The naira rebounded against the U.S. dollar, gaining significant value this week, closing at N1,593.32/$1 in the official market.3 This improvement is linked to the recent settlement of a $500 million domestic dollar bond, which was fully subscribed by investors. The move injected confidence into the market and provided a brief cushion for the currency. On September 6, 2024, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) took additional steps to ease pressure on the naira by approving the sale of $20,000 to each Bureau de Change (BDC) operator at a rate of N1580/$1. To stabilise exchange rates and meet the growing demand for invisible transactions, the CBN instructed the operators to maintain a margin of no more than 1%. This intervention comes after months of currency volatility that have put the naira under immense pressure, and by increasing liquidity in the market, the CBN aims to close the gap between official and parallel market rates, which has widened in recent weeks. This, if sustained, could temporarily boost the naira’s value and bring more stability to the foreign exchange market. However, to sustain the positive momentum and strengthen the naira over time, the government needs to implement a more holistic approach that goes beyond periodic interventions. Additionally, the government should intensify its efforts to attract foreign investment by fostering an enabling business environment with policies that promote stability, transparency and growth.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 33)

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recent Transport Fares report, the average fare paid by commuters for bus travel within the city has decreased from N963.58 in June to N942.61 in July 2024, representing a 2.18% decrease MoM. However, year-on-year, it has declined by 29.46% from N1,336.29 in July 2023. Similarly, the average fare paid by commuters for intercity bus travel per drop rose to N7,117.17 in July from N7,029.23 in June 2024, representing a 0.35% increase. However, compared to July 2023, this fare has increased by 20.23%, from N5,919.19. Air transport fares have risen to N98,561.74 in July 2024, representing a 9.65% increase month on month. The average fare for motorbike (Okada) transportation increased by 1.22% to N483.49 in July 2024, from N477.49 in June 2024. On a year-over-year basis, this is down by 25.20% from N646.12 recorded in July 2023

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 32)

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey report of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has revealed that the composite PMI stood at 49.7 in July 2024, an improvement from 48.8 recorded in June 2024. The PMI measures a country's economic activity direction and extent. An index below 50.0 points indicates a contraction in business operations, while an index over 50.0 points indicates a growth in business activities. A 50.0 index denotes no change in the circumstances. The PMI value for July, which is below the critical threshold of 50.0, is the thirteenth consecutive contraction recorded by the CBN and signifies that business operations are still contracting, though at a slower pace compared to June. A sectoral disaggregation of the PMI shows that industry and agriculture recorded contractions of 48.3 and 49.7 respectively, while services recorded 50.3

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