August 3, 2015
Volume 3 September 2013
This report provides an evidence-based analysis of the state of the Nigerian economy in a bid to inform economic policies in Nigeria. The report presents some analyses of significant economic events in Nigeria within the period, and provides an outlook on what policymakers, businesses, and individuals should expect in subsequent quarters of 2016. It also provides valuable insights into potential drivers of the economic trends and outlines expectations for subsequent quarters of the year. The area of focus are Global Economic Performance, Domestic Economic Performance, External Sector Performance, and Sectoral Performance.
Inflation rate continued its upward trajectory in the week under review. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.39 per cent, from 11.38 per cent in February to 12.77 per cent in March, 20161. Remarkably, this is the highest rate since July 2012, representing a 4-year high. While both components of the CPI rose in the period, the food sub-index was largely the main driver of the increase in the CPI, with a growth rate of 1.39 per cent between February and March. The persistent scarcity in petroleum products, especially Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), has increased transportation costs and the price of food items.
Recently released report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates price increase of selected food items for the month of February 2017, relative to January 2017. Specifically, prices of the selected 24 food items ranged from N47.42 N1, 812 in January to N42.90 N1, 955.10 in February 2017. Average price of all selected items increased month-on-month by 2.7 percent to N540.05. Non-seasonal agriculture factors such as rising cost of crop production, imported products, and transportation continue to drive domestic food prices higher as domestic food supply contracts. This is also reflective of the high food inflation rate in February (18.53 percent) relative to 17.82 percent recorded in January 2017. Strengthening Nigerias crude oil production, supporting local agricultural production, and improving forex policies to straighten the naira remain critical in improving food supply and reducing inflation.