August 3, 2015
Volume 3 September 2013
Inflation rate rose slightly to 9.4 percent in November 2015 from 9.3 percent in the previous month. This rise is attributed to price increase in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, and Transportation costs which extends from shortages of petrol across the country. The food sub-index grew by 0.2 percentage points to 10. 1 percent while, the Core sub-index declined by 0.2 percentage points to 8.7 percent within the period. The inflationary up-tick points to the need to curtail the rising food prices by increasing the supply of petrol in the country.
The Naira maintained slight appreciation against the dollar in the review week. At the parallel market, the value of the Naira appreciated week-on-week by 1.6 percent to exchange at N380/$ on May 19, 2017. In addition, inter-bank market rate appreciated slightly by 15kobo to N305.45/$. The appreciation in both segments of the market are favorable effects of the CBNs continued forex supply in the week under review (In a bid to further ease forex liquidity, the CBN pumped a total of $457.3 million on May 15, 2017).
Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that total capital importation in 2015 fell steeply by 53.5 per cent from $20,750.76 million in 2014 to $9,643.01 million in 20152. This decline was largely driven by a substantial drop in portfolio investment (the largest component of Capital Inflows), which fell by 59.74 percent. The exclusion of Nigeria from the JP Morgan EM Bond index, the slump in crude oil prices, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and the capital control measures imposed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are the notable drivers of the reduced inflow of capital. Going forward, improving the business environment, especially easing foreign exchange controls, would determine the extent to which the economy can attract increased capital inflows.
Sub-Saharan Africa experienced its worst economic performance in over two decades in 2016, with growth slowing to 1.5 percent. The poor performance in South Africa and oil exporting countries is responsible for attenuating regional growth rate, due to their high collective contribution to regional GDP, despite robust performance in non-resource intensive countries. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to slightly improve in 2017 (2.9 percent) and further strengthen in 2018 (3.6 percent). At the sub-regional level, growth prospect is estimated to be highest in West Africa (4.78 percent), attributable to 5.93 percent growth rate from West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) Countries. East Africa is expected to grow at 4.5 percent, Southern Africa 3 percent, and Central Africa 2 percent. Agricultural exporting countries are projected to grow at around 7 percent, while oil producing countries are estimated to grow at 1.9 percent, which indicates a recovery from the negative growth recorded in 2016.