Project Reports

August 10, 2018

The Economics of Tobacco Control in Nigeria: Modelling the Fiscal and Health Effects of a Tobacco Excise Tax Change in Nigeria

In Nigeria, a majority of the adult smoking population (15 years and above) consume tobacco primarily in the form of cigarettes. Nigeria has about 6 million adult smokers, or 5.6 percent smoking prevalence (GATS, 2017). Smoking prevalence is significantly higher for men (at 10 percent) relative to women (1.1 percent), and 18 percent of Nigerian […]

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In Nigeria, a majority of the adult smoking population (15 years and above) consume tobacco primarily in the form of cigarettes. Nigeria has about 6 million adult smokers, or 5.6 percent smoking prevalence (GATS, 2017). Smoking prevalence is significantly higher for men (at 10 percent) relative to women (1.1 percent), and 18 percent of Nigerian youths between the ages of 13 to 15 years smoke (GATS, 2017). A total of 920 million cigarette packs were consumed in Nigeria in 2015 (GlobalData Plc., 2016), of which 74 percent is domestically produced (NCS, 2015). Tobacco related diseases are responsible for about 17,500 deaths per year (about 207 men and 130 women per week) and about 250,000 cancer diagnoses (Tobacco Atlas, 2015). Economic losses in the form of medical treatments and loss of productivity from tobacco-related diseases is estimated at US$ 591 million in 2015 (Tobacco Atlas, 2015).




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Africa Economic Update (Issue 8)

Economic growth in Africas largest economies improved in the second quarter of 2017 (2017Q2) relative to the preceding quarter (2017 Q1), as Nigeria and South Africa exited recession. Specifically, GDP growth rate was 0.55 percent and 1.1 percent for Nigeria and South Africa in 2017Q2, compared to 0.91 percent and 0.7 percent in 2017Q2, respectively. The increased growth in Nigerias economy was driven by improved performance in the oil sector (increased crude oil price and production) which offset the decrease in non-oil sector growth, while South Africas emergence from recession is supported by growth in its agriculture sector complimented by growth in finance, real estate, business service, mining and quarrying sectors.

Portfolio Diversification Between Developed And Less Developed Economies

This study examines the hedging effectiveness of portfolio investment diversification between developed and developing economies; with focus on the Nigerian stock asset vis--vis the stock assets of the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK). Its main contribution is in the analysis of optimal portfolio diversification using optimal portfolio weight (OPW) and optimal hedging ratio (OHR). Empirical findings show that the OPW and OHR are low, which indicates impressive potential gains from combining Nigerian stock assets in an investment portfolio with US and UK stock assets. In addition, exchange rate volatility is found to pose stern limitation on the potential benefits of this portfolio diversification arrangement. It is therefore recommended that the monetary authority in Nigeria should pursue policies towards reducing exchange rate volatility to the barest minimum. This will possibly attract more investors from developed economies who might be willing to combine Nigerian stock in their investment portfolio to minimize portfolio risk.