Project Reports

August 10, 2018

The Economics of Tobacco Control in Nigeria: Modelling the Fiscal and Health Effects of a Tobacco Excise Tax Change in Nigeria

Download Label
March 13, 2018 - 4:00 am
540.64 kB
v.1.7 (stable)
Read →

In Nigeria, a majority of the adult smoking population (15 years and above) consume tobacco primarily in the form of cigarettes. Nigeria has about 6 million adult smokers, or 5.6 percent smoking prevalence (GATS, 2017). Smoking prevalence is significantly higher for men (at 10 percent) relative to women (1.1 percent), and 18 percent of Nigerian youths between the ages of 13 to 15 years smoke (GATS, 2017). A total of 920 million cigarette packs were consumed in Nigeria in 2015 (GlobalData Plc., 2016), of which 74 percent is domestically produced (NCS, 2015). Tobacco related diseases are responsible for about 17,500 deaths per year (about 207 men and 130 women per week) and about 250,000 cancer diagnoses (Tobacco Atlas, 2015). Economic losses in the form of medical treatments and loss of productivity from tobacco-related diseases is estimated at US$ 591 million in 2015 (Tobacco Atlas, 2015).



Program Budgeting Analysis Of Education And Health Sectors

This brief aims to deepen stakeholders understanding of the sources of funding and how money is allocated to and spent in the social sectors of health and education, which are critical for pro-poor growth and poverty alleviation.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 23)

Recent Data on Nigerias Real GDP growth rate (Year-on-Year) declined by 2.47 percentage points, from 2.11 per cent in 2015Q4 to -0.36 percent in 2016Q11. This is the lowest GDP growth rate since 2004Q2 (-0.81 percent). The Oil sector continued to contract, as -1.89 percent growth was recorded in 2016Q1. The negative growth witnessed in the oil sector was likely driven by the fall in global oil prices by $9.732 and decline in domestic crude oil production, relative to preceding quarter. Similarly, the Non-oil sector witnessed a negative growth as it declined by 3.32 percentage points from 3.14 percent in 2015 Q4 to -0.18 percent in 2016Q1. The underperformance in the non-oil sector was driven by significant contractions in financial (by 17.69 percent), manufacturing (by 8.77 percent), and real estate (by 5.48 percent) sub-sectors. Given that the present economic fundamentals point to a likely recession in 2016Q2, the government can stir economic activities by speeding up the budget implementation process to spur growth in the non-oil sector and the economy at large. More so, the domestic production shock in the oil sector needs to be addressed to effectively leverage on the present marginal rise in crude oil prices.