Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

March 11, 2018

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 9)

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Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), maintained positive growth rate two quarters after emergence from recession in 2017Q2, thus consolidating the recovery process. Specifically, real GDP grew by 1.92 percent in 2017Q4, a slight increase from the 1.40 percent in the previous quarter and a huge recovery compared to the contraction (-1.73 percent) during the corresponding quarter in 2016. Notably, the 2017 fiscal year recorded an annual real GDP growth rate of 0.83 percent, significantly increasing Year-on-Year by 2.41 percentage points.

 




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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 3)

Recently released inflation rate report by the NBS shows a further decline in consumer price index in December 2017. At 15.37 percent, the CPI was 0.53 percentage points lower than the 15.90 percent recorded in November 2017. The food sub-index decreased to 19.42 percent from 20.21 percent, indicating reduced pressure on food prices in the review period. Core sub-index fell slightly to 12.1 percent from 12.21 percent in the preceding month. Going forward, the ability of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to control inflation in 2018 may be hampered by monetary injections by the government and politicians towards budgetary expenditure and election campaigns, respectively.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 18)

Recent Data released by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics reveals an increase in total public debt stock between 2015 and 2016. Foreign and domestic debt stock stood at $11.4 billion and N14.0 trillion respectively as at December 2016, from $10.7 billion and N10.5 trillionrecorded as at December 2015. Disaggregated data shows that foreign debt sources comprised Multilateral ($8.0 billion), Bilateral ($0.2 billion) and Exim bank of China ($3.2 billion); domestic sources included government bonds, treasury bills and bonds. The federal government and states accounted for 68.7% and 31.3% respectively of foreign debt stock; 78.9% and 21.1% respectively of domestic debt stock. This maybe particularly at the backdrop of government borrowings in 2016 to finance its expenditure (mostly recurrent).

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 16)

Recently released World Economic Outlook by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects economic activities to increase significantly in developing countries- especially Nigeria. Annual real output is expected to grow by 0.8 percent in 2017 from the contraction of 1.5 percent in 20161. Improvement in economic activities is hinged on prospective favorable effects of continued increase in commodity export price (Crude oil is expected to increase to $55 per barrel in 2017 compared to $46 in 2016).

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 17)

Power sector analysis shows a decline in power generated by 8.5 percent from a peak of 3,675 mw to 3,362 mw between April 3, 2016 and April 10, 20169. This record is however still below 5,074.7 mw- the highest peak ever attained in the country. The declining power supply which has been attributed to vandalism of pipelines and gas shortages, has continued to distort economic activities in the country. With the persistent fall in electricity generation, the possibility of attaining the targeted 10,000 mw by 201910 seems unattainable. A clear strategy towards increasing power generation and curbing vandalism is urgently needed.