Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

February 21, 2018

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 8)

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Global benchmark crude, Brent, sold for $66.43 per barrel, a little above 3.4 percent from the $64. 3 per barrel in the preceding week. Nigeria’s Bonny light exchanged for $65.71 per barrel. Global Crude supply levels have been constrained by a dip in Libya’s production, following the shutdown of the El Feel oilfield in Libya, which produces 70,000 bpd. This is complemented by the continued compliance by OPEC member countries to curb production levels, thus rebalancing the global crude oil market and gradually driving prices upwards.

 




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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 30)

Power sector analysis shows an increase in power generated by 3.01 percent from 2903.5mw to 2991.8mw between July 1, 2016 and July 8, 2016, with a peak of 3260.8mw on July 5, 2016. This is however, still below the highest (5074.7mw) recorded in February, 2016. The increase reflects improved use of hydro (water) for power generation. The easing out of gas constraint occasioned by recent pipeline repairs have also contributed to the increase in power generation. Improvements in power generation would be sustained if hydro measures are complemented with fast-tracked repairs on damaged gas channels and intensified efforts at tackling pipeline sabotage.

Infrastructure Financing In Nigeria:

Similar to most sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, Nigeria has a huge infrastructure deficit which considerably limits efforts towards achieving inclusive growth, sustainable development, and poverty reduction. With infrastructure stock estimated at 20-25 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Nigerias infrastructure stock is still significantly lower than the recommended international benchmark of 70 per cent of GDP. The 2014 National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIMP) estimates that a total of US$ 3 trillion of investments, or US$100 billion annually, is required over the next 30 years to bridge Nigerias infrastructure gap. In particular, the Plan estimates that Nigeria will have to spend an annual average of US$ 33 billion infrastructure investments for the period 2014 -2018. This means that Nigeria will have to more than double its spending on infrastructure from the current 2-3 per cent of GDP to around 7 per cent to make appreciable progress in infrastructure development over the next three decades.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 33)

The naira depreciated by 4.3 percent to a record low of N313/$ at the interbank market segment on July 29, 2016.Precisely, the lack of liquidity in all FX market segments continues to weaken the naira. In order to increase FOREX liquidity, moderate inflationary pressures, encourage capital inflows and support the naira, the CBN may need to increase the supply of FOREX in the interbank market while simultaneously mopping up idle funds through the sale of securities.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 11)

Recently released report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates price increase of selected food items for the month of February 2017, relative to January 2017. Specifically, prices of the selected 24 food items ranged from N47.42 N1, 812 in January to N42.90 N1, 955.10 in February 2017. Average price of all selected items increased month-on-month by 2.7 percent to N540.05. Non-seasonal agriculture factors such as rising cost of crop production, imported products, and transportation continue to drive domestic food prices higher as domestic food supply contracts. This is also reflective of the high food inflation rate in February (18.53 percent) relative to 17.82 percent recorded in January 2017. Strengthening Nigerias crude oil production, supporting local agricultural production, and improving forex policies to straighten the naira remain critical in improving food supply and reducing inflation.