Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

February 21, 2018

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 8)

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Global benchmark crude, Brent, sold for $66.43 per barrel, a little above 3.4 percent from the $64. 3 per barrel in the preceding week. Nigeria’s Bonny light exchanged for $65.71 per barrel. Global Crude supply levels have been constrained by a dip in Libya’s production, following the shutdown of the El Feel oilfield in Libya, which produces 70,000 bpd. This is complemented by the continued compliance by OPEC member countries to curb production levels, thus rebalancing the global crude oil market and gradually driving prices upwards.

 




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Understanding The Ongoing Recession In Nigeria:A Synthesis Of The Events And Policy Options

In the second quarter of 2016, the Nigerian economy witnessed its first recession in twenty years due to the interplay of several external and internal factors. The recession has continued until date and has given rise to relentless unemployment rate and job losses, double digit and soaring inflation, currency depreciation and widening gap between parallel market and official exchange rates, amongst other adverse effect on individuals and firms in the country. Thus, there is a need to take a deeper look into the nature of the present recession as well as the impact of monetary and fiscal policy responses thus far, in order to shed light on the way forward towards tackling the recession and ensuring sustainable economic growth. This paper analyses the ongoing recession in the Nigerian economy to provide insights into the interplay of events and recommendations for policy.

Africa Economic Update (Issue 7)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly revised upward growth projections for SubSaharan Africa by 0.1 percentage point in 2017 but retained growth estimates for 2018.1 Precisely, growth estimate in the region was increased from 2.6 percent in April 2017 forecast to 2.7 percent in July 2017 forecast, while it was retained at 3.5 percent for 2018. The slight upward revision in 2017 is attributable to an upgrade in South Africas growth prospect from 0.8 percent in April 2017 to 1.0 percent in July 2017. Despite the upward 2017 revision, 2018 forecast for South Africa was revised down from 1.6 percent in April 2017 to 1.2 percent in July 2017. Growth forecast for Nigeria remained unchanged at 0.8 percent and 1.9 percent for 2017 and 2018 respectively.