Nigeria’s economy has shown sustained signs of recovery. Real GDP growth rate rose Year-on-Year by 2.38 percent in 2018Q4, as against 1.81 percent recorded in the preceding quarter – an increase of 0.57 percentage points.1 Non-oil sector remained the focal point for the economic expansion – growth in the sector’s activities improved to 2.7 percent from 2.3 percent and contributed approximately 93 percent to real GDP. The numbers unveil key high-performing non-oil activities during the quarter, with services manufacturing, and agriculture leading the pack. Going forward, the economy is expected to continue registering positive growth following a more stable political economy. However, inadequate credit among other factors may hinder the non-oil sector from scaling. The CBN may consider revising the banking regulations to include loan quotas for sectors with high growth and revenue-generating potential.
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
The Naira maintained slight appreciation against the dollar in the review week. At the parallel market, the value of the Naira appreciated week-on-week by 1.6 percent to exchange at N380/$ on May 19, 2017. In addition, inter-bank market rate appreciated slightly by 15kobo to N305.45/$. The appreciation in both segments of the market are favorable effects of the CBNs continued forex supply in the week under review (In a bid to further ease forex liquidity, the CBN pumped a total of $457.3 million on May 15, 2017).
Similar to most sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, Nigeria has a huge infrastructure deficit which considerably limits efforts towards achieving inclusive growth, sustainable development, and poverty reduction. With infrastructure stock estimated at 20-25 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Nigerias infrastructure stock is still significantly lower than the recommended international benchmark of 70 per cent of GDP. The 2014 National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIMP) estimates that a total of US$ 3 trillion of investments, or US$100 billion annually, is required over the next 30 years to bridge Nigerias infrastructure gap. In particular, the Plan estimates that Nigeria will have to spend an annual average of US$ 33 billion infrastructure investments for the period 2014 -2018. This means that Nigeria will have to more than double its spending on infrastructure from the current 2-3 per cent of GDP to around 7 per cent to make appreciable progress in infrastructure development over the next three decades.