Nigeria’s economy has shown sustained signs of recovery. Real GDP growth rate rose Year-on-Year by 2.38 percent in 2018Q4, as against 1.81 percent recorded in the preceding quarter – an increase of 0.57 percentage points.1 Non-oil sector remained the focal point for the economic expansion – growth in the sector’s activities improved to 2.7 percent from 2.3 percent and contributed approximately 93 percent to real GDP. The numbers unveil key high-performing non-oil activities during the quarter, with services manufacturing, and agriculture leading the pack. Going forward, the economy is expected to continue registering positive growth following a more stable political economy. However, inadequate credit among other factors may hinder the non-oil sector from scaling. The CBN may consider revising the banking regulations to include loan quotas for sectors with high growth and revenue-generating potential.
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
Recently released inflation rate report by the NBS shows a further decline in consumer price index in December 2017. At 15.37 percent, the CPI was 0.53 percentage points lower than the 15.90 percent recorded in November 2017. The food sub-index decreased to 19.42 percent from 20.21 percent, indicating reduced pressure on food prices in the review period. Core sub-index fell slightly to 12.1 percent from 12.21 percent in the preceding month. Going forward, the ability of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to control inflation in 2018 may be hampered by monetary injections by the government and politicians towards budgetary expenditure and election campaigns, respectively.
Inflation rate rose slightly to 9.4 percent in November 2015 from 9.3 percent in the previous month. This rise is attributed to price increase in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, and Transportation costs which extends from shortages of petrol across the country. The food sub-index grew by 0.2 percentage points to 10. 1 percent while, the Core sub-index declined by 0.2 percentage points to 8.7 percent within the period. The inflationary up-tick points to the need to curtail the rising food prices by increasing the supply of petrol in the country.
The paper highlights the importance of oil sector transparency in order to support governments push towards structural reforms and inclusive growth.