Nigeria’s economy has shown sustained signs of recovery. Real GDP growth rate rose Year-on-Year by 2.38 percent in 2018Q4, as against 1.81 percent recorded in the preceding quarter – an increase of 0.57 percentage points.1 Non-oil sector remained the focal point for the economic expansion – growth in the sector’s activities improved to 2.7 percent from 2.3 percent and contributed approximately 93 percent to real GDP. The numbers unveil key high-performing non-oil activities during the quarter, with services manufacturing, and agriculture leading the pack. Going forward, the economy is expected to continue registering positive growth following a more stable political economy. However, inadequate credit among other factors may hinder the non-oil sector from scaling. The CBN may consider revising the banking regulations to include loan quotas for sectors with high growth and revenue-generating potential.
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
Latest figures of FDI flows to Nigeria show a decline of 27 per cent from $4.7 billion in 2014 to $3.4 billion in 20152, representing its lowest value since 2005. This decline is largely attributed to the oil price slump, which has generally increased uncertainty in the economy, with adverse effects on investors confidence. The fall in FDI flows was witnessed in most resource based economies in Africa, as FDI flows to the continent fell by 31 percent in 2015. The forex controls in place in Nigeria has also exacerbated the uncertainty in economy, and created obstacles for both domestic and foreign investors. Thus a review of the forex restrictions could send positive signals to investors.
OPEC weekly basket price increased marginally from $45.09 on June 17, 2016 to $45.95 on June 24, 2016, while Nigerias bonny light increased from $47.61 to $48.90 (with a peak of $49.2 on June 23, 2016)within the same period. The rise in oil price, amidst downward pressures, was likely driven by expectations that the UK would remain in the EU. However, price fell (to $47.61) on June 24, 2016 following the outcome of the UK referendum (on June 23, 2016) to leave the EU. This was driven by concerns over a possible contagion effect of further disintegration on the EU (a major oil consumer) which could drive down oil demand in the longer term. In the medium term, oil prices could face further pressure as a result of rising crude oil output and attenuating production disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. Although, the recent rise in oil prices seem transient, Nigeria can benefit from the marginal rise if disruptions in oil production is quickly resolved
The paper examines the implications of trade effects in bilateral trade drawing evidence from West African Monetary and Economic Union (UEMOA). It also discusses the importance of political stability to trade in ECOWAS countries.
Global economic growth remained fairly stable in 2016Q3 with baseline projections for global growth at 3.1 percent and 2.4 percent by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank respectively. Growth in developed countries was moderate but unevenly distributed: while the U.S and the UK showed improvements, growth in other economies remained tepid. Among emerging countries, India witnessed higher growth while growth in China remained constant but the Chinese Yuan continued to appreciate. Given that India is Nigerias major crude oil importer, improving economic conditions in India may translate into rising demand for Nigerias crude oil. However, the continuous appreciation of the Yuan poses significant inflationary threat in Nigeria given the high level of imports from China. Subdued global demand, weak trade, uncertainties in commodity prices and consequences of the Brexit were the key constraining factors to growth over the period. In addition, growth in Sub-Saharan African countries remained generally slow on the account of low commodity price, political turmoil, and inconsistent government policies.