Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

March 10, 2018

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 7)

Month-on-Month analysis of food prices show that average prices of selected food items reduced from December 2017 to January 2018. Precisely, total average month-on-month price decreased from 2.48 percent to 1.19 percent, with reductions in unit prices of items such as eggs, chicken, beef, rice, fish, and palm oil among others. Food prices which remains […]

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Month-on-Month analysis of food prices show that average prices of selected food items
reduced from December 2017 to January 2018. Precisely, total average month-on-month price
decreased from 2.48 percent to 1.19 percent, with reductions in unit prices of items such as
eggs, chicken, beef, rice, fish, and palm oil among others. Food prices which remains largely
volatile in the short term, may have reduced in the review period due to a slight fall in consumer
demand following the end of the festive period. Looking forward, the decline in food prices may
be short-lived in the absence of yield-enhancing investments that can sustain food
production/supply. Hence, the government should promote policies that alleviate the credit constraints to yield-enhancing investment in the private sector.




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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 28)

OPEC weekly basket price increased marginally from $45.09 on June 17, 2016 to $45.95 on June 24, 2016, while Nigerias bonny light increased from $47.61 to $48.90 (with a peak of $49.2 on June 23, 2016)within the same period. The rise in oil price, amidst downward pressures, was likely driven by expectations that the UK would remain in the EU. However, price fell (to $47.61) on June 24, 2016 following the outcome of the UK referendum (on June 23, 2016) to leave the EU. This was driven by concerns over a possible contagion effect of further disintegration on the EU (a major oil consumer) which could drive down oil demand in the longer term. In the medium term, oil prices could face further pressure as a result of rising crude oil output and attenuating production disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. Although, the recent rise in oil prices seem transient, Nigeria can benefit from the marginal rise if disruptions in oil production is quickly resolved

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 41)

The naira continued its downward trajectory in the review week. Specifically, naira depreciated significantly at the parallel segment by 3.5 percent to a record low of N440/$ on September 23, 2016. Notably, this was driven by the worsening liquidity constraints at the interbank market which left the excess forex demand to be sourced at the parallel market, and thus exerted downward pressure on the naira. The naira is likely to further weaken given that most of the liquidity constraints are exogenously determined and thus forex supply will likely remain subdued by its demand.