Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

January 15, 2018

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 50)

In the third quarter of 2017, NBS report show that Nigeria recorded a marginal quarter-overquarter and significant Year-on-Year increases in the value (in Naira terms) of merchandise (goods) foreign trade. At N5.92 trillion, total merchandise trade increased 3.9 percent over the preceding quarter and 23.9 percent over the corresponding quarter in 2016. Specifically, with exports rising QOQ by 15.2 percent to N3.57 trillion and imports shrinking by 9.4 percent to N2.35 trillion, trade balance amounted to a surplus of N1.22 trillion in 2017Q3- a substantial 142 percentage increase (QOQ) in trade surplus value.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 51)

Recently released data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that there was significant increase in Nigerias total merchandise trade for 2016Q3. Basically, the total merchandise trade increased (quarter-on-quarter) by 16.29 percent to N4, 722 billion in 2016Q3;owing to 29.1 percent increase in exports and 6.2 percent rise in imports. Oil exports increased by 31 percent to N1, 943 billion, while non-oil exports increased by 20.5 percent to N440 billion. However, on the aggregate, Nigeria recorded yet another trade deficit of N104 billion, indicating continuous higher imports relative to exports. Overall, though there is improvement in the performance of non-oil sector, however, this is insufficient to effectively complement the loss in oil trade sustained since the beginning of oil price crash. This suggests that diversification into non-oil sector may not be able to rescue the economy in the short term. However, while the diversification efforts should be sustained, eliminating hurdles in oil production may be instrumental to higher exports, especially as oil price increase is gaining momentum.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 49)

OPEC weekly basket price reduced from $61.14 to $60.73 per barrel (December 1 8, 2017). Similarly, Global oil benchmark crude sold for as low as $61.22 per barrel during the week, down week-on-week by 1.8 percent. Nigerias Bonny light declined slightly by approximately 1 percent to $63.534. The fall in crude prices came after a sharp rise in U.S. inventories of refined fuel, which suggested that actual demand may be weakening5 (the EIA data shows an increase of 8.5 million barrels of stored fuel). Given that crude oil revenue remains critical to Nigerias budget performance, investments aimed at improving growth and competitiveness of other key sectors is essential to minimize distortions on budgetary expenditure.