Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

October 31, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 45)

Recently
released report by Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency
Initiative (NEITI)shows a significant decline in revenue
allocation across the three tiers of government for 2016H1 (January to June). Specifically, total disbursements dropped
(year-on-year) by 30.45 percent to N2.01 trillion in 2016H1. The
drop in revenue allocations is accountable to the decline in both oil and
non-oil revenue. While lower oil revenue was triggered by the drastic fall in
oil price and production in 2016H1, lower non-oil revenue was driven by the decline
in tax revenue occasioned by contraction in economic activities in the review
half-year.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 45)

Crude oil prices recorded increase during the review week. Global benchmark, Brent price increased from $61.42 to $63.522. Nigerias Bonny light gained 9.6 percent to trade at $64.78 per barrel. The weeks rise was at the backdrop of further prospective cuts agreement at OPECs meeting in November 2017 and political tensions and uncertainties in Saudi Arabia given that these events may likely reduce supply and support demand in the near term. Meanwhile, global crude oil market events have been favorable to Nigeria, as the price of bonny light at approximately $65 per barrel, reflects the highest in more than two years.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 10)

Nigerias inflation rate remained above CBNs bandwidth of 6-9 per cent. Specifically, the inflation rate increased slightly from 9.55 percent in December 2015 to 9.62 percent in January 20165. The Core sub-index remains the main driver of inflation in Nigeria. The higher prices of items in the Core sub-index such as clothing and foot wears are reflective of higher domestic production costs as a result of the decline in the value of the naira relative to the dollar. However, in the period, the price increase was moderated by the stable price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Going forward, without any sustainable policy measure to prevent the further depreciation of the naira, inflation may exceed the current single digit inflation rate in the near term.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 33)

The naira depreciated by 4.3 percent to a record low of N313/$ at the interbank market segment on July 29, 2016.Precisely, the lack of liquidity in all FX market segments continues to weaken the naira. In order to increase FOREX liquidity, moderate inflationary pressures, encourage capital inflows and support the naira, the CBN may need to increase the supply of FOREX in the interbank market while simultaneously mopping up idle funds through the sale of securities.

Money Supply And Lending Rate

Money Supply: On a month-on-month basis, growth in M2 have accelerated overtime; reaching over N20,000 billion by April 2016. The rise in M2 at the end of 2016Q1 reflects the fast-paced rise in aggre