At N4,401.91 billion or 7.7 per cent of GDP, gross federally collected revenue for the first half of 2018 was 33.7 percent below the proportionate budget estimates but 47.1 percent above the level recorded in corresponding period of 2017.1 The difference in revenue, relative to the proportionate budget estimates, was driven by shortfalls in both oil and non-oil revenue components. The decline in oil revenue was due to a difference between the budgeted crude oil production benchmark of 2.3 million barrels per day (mbd) and the actual production of 1.90 mbd. An increase in crude oil price over the budget benchmark within the review period was insufficient to reverse the decreasing trend in oil revenue.
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
Internally generated revenue by 35 states for the 2016 fiscal year increased by 17.5 percent to N802 billion from N683 billion generated in the preceding year. A breakdown of the IGR shows that the increase was driven by PAYE, Direct assessment, Road taxes, Revenue from MDAs and other taxes. The highest and lowest revenue generating states were Lagos (38%) and Ebonyi (0.1%) respectively. An improvement in the efficiency of the tax system could improve the contributions of the IGR to overall government revenue. Particularly, incorporating workers in small stores, agricultural and informal businesses into the tax system; building capacity of tax officials and computerizing their operations; as well as investing in quality data collection and access could provide some quick wins.
The considerable increase in inflation continued to be driven by exchange-rate-pass-through from imported items as well as the lingering scarcity in the availability of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). One of the key ways to reduce inflationary pressures in the near term is to improve the supply of PMS to filling stations. In the medium to long term, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) may need to revitalize local refining and bridge the gap between the supply and demand for PMS by households and businesses.
Crude oil price continued to increase in the period under review, reaching its 2016 peak at $50.30 on June 2, 2016. Specifically, OPEC weekly basket price increased by 1.43 percent from $44.65 on May 27, 2016 to $45.29 on June 3, 2016. Brent was sold for $49.96 on June 3, 2016. The present rise in crude oil price can be attributed to oil production shocks in several oil-exporting countries, and the general expectation of a further cut in output following the OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 2, 2016. However, the OPEC meeting ended with no agreement on production quotas. In Nigeria, oil production level increased in the period under review, following repairs on some of the damaged oil and gas facilities. Precisely, Nigerias output increased by 200,000 barrels on June 3, 2016 to 1.6 million barrels.