Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

November 14, 2018

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 44)

At N4,401.91 billion or 7.7 per cent of GDP, gross federally collected revenue for the first half of 2018 was 33.7 percent below the proportionate budget estimates but 47.1 percent above the level recorded in corresponding period of 2017.1 The difference in revenue, relative to the proportionate budget estimates, was driven by shortfalls in both […]

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At N4,401.91 billion or 7.7 per cent of GDP, gross federally collected revenue for the first half of 2018 was 33.7 percent below the proportionate budget estimates but 47.1 percent above the level recorded in corresponding period of 2017.1 The difference in revenue, relative to the proportionate budget estimates, was driven by shortfalls in both oil and non-oil revenue components. The decline in oil revenue was due to a difference between the budgeted crude oil production benchmark of 2.3 million barrels per day (mbd) and the actual production of 1.90 mbd. An increase in crude oil price over the budget benchmark within the review period was insufficient to reverse the decreasing trend in oil revenue.




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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 23)

Recently released report by the NBS shows an increase in Unemployment and Underemployment rates for 2016Q4 relative to preceding and corresponding quarters. The unemployment rate, at 14.2 percent, indicates a 3.8% points YoY4increase, and a 0.3% points QoQ increase with the number of unemployed people increasing by 351,051 persons. Similarly, underemployment rate grew (QoQ) by 1.3% points to 21%, representing about 17 million underemployed persons as at the quarter. The rise in unemployment/underemployment rate is attributable to the disproportionate rise in labour force vis--vis job creation, in addition to slow-down in economic/business activities during the quarter. Going forward, the government should make efforts to strengthen and expand Nigerias entrepreneurial infrastructure.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 16)

Recently released World Economic Outlook by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects economic activities to increase significantly in developing countries- especially Nigeria. Annual real output is expected to grow by 0.8 percent in 2017 from the contraction of 1.5 percent in 20161. Improvement in economic activities is hinged on prospective favorable effects of continued increase in commodity export price (Crude oil is expected to increase to $55 per barrel in 2017 compared to $46 in 2016).

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 19)

Internally generated revenue by 35 states for the 2016 fiscal year increased by 17.5 percent to N802 billion from N683 billion generated in the preceding year. A breakdown of the IGR shows that the increase was driven by PAYE, Direct assessment, Road taxes, Revenue from MDAs and other taxes. The highest and lowest revenue generating states were Lagos (38%) and Ebonyi (0.1%) respectively. An improvement in the efficiency of the tax system could improve the contributions of the IGR to overall government revenue. Particularly, incorporating workers in small stores, agricultural and informal businesses into the tax system; building capacity of tax officials and computerizing their operations; as well as investing in quality data collection and access could provide some quick wins.