Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

November 6, 2017

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 43)

Crude oil prices have sustained upward increases for the past few weeks in October. While upward trajectory of crude oil prices is expected to be sustained in the short term in line with OPECs production cuts deal expected to run until March 2018, it is important to note that crude oil prices would remain volatile. The Nigerian government therefore should take advantage of periods of high revenue from crude oil exports to develop other sectors (such as Agriculture, Manufacturing and Services sectors) of the economy as key exporting and revenue generation sectors, and thus minimize volatility risks

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 22)

Power sector analysis shows a decline in power generated by 15.07 percent from a peak of 3,424 mw to 2,908 mw between May 8, 2016 and May 15, 20169. The declining power supply is attributable to vandalism of pipelines and gas shortages, which has a debilitating effect on power generation. As part of the efforts by the Federal Government to improve power supply in the country, the Bank of Industry (BoI) is currently funding intervention projects to provide alternative source of energy (solar) in rural areas across the country10. Since the major problem facing power generation in the country is gas shortages, the government should make concerted efforts to combat vandalism.

Infrastructure Financing In Nigeria:

Similar to most sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, Nigeria has a huge infrastructure deficit which considerably limits efforts towards achieving inclusive growth, sustainable development, and poverty reduction. With infrastructure stock estimated at 20-25 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Nigerias infrastructure stock is still significantly lower than the recommended international benchmark of 70 per cent of GDP. The 2014 National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIMP) estimates that a total of US$ 3 trillion of investments, or US$100 billion annually, is required over the next 30 years to bridge Nigerias infrastructure gap. In particular, the Plan estimates that Nigeria will have to spend an annual average of US$ 33 billion infrastructure investments for the period 2014 -2018. This means that Nigeria will have to more than double its spending on infrastructure from the current 2-3 per cent of GDP to around 7 per cent to make appreciable progress in infrastructure development over the next three decades.