The World Bank’s recent Africa Pulse publication reveals a revised 2018 growth rate forecast for Nigeria from the earlier projected 2.1 percent to 1.9 percent1 – representing a slight downward review. The revision was premised around what the institution termed “sluggish growth” amid rising debts, and a myriad of factors including declining oil production, disruptions in agricultural activities occasioned by the incessant herdsmen and farmers clashes, and effects of climate change. The contraction in the agricultural sector stalled crop production and dampened prospects of increased non-oil growth, all of which stunted economic recovery2. With the continued implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (2017-2020), there are strong possibilities that the economy may benefit from revenue sources other than oil in the near future.
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
On a Month-on-Month basis, average growth rate of selected food prices decreased in October 2017. Precisely, contracting by 1.24 percent in October, average growth rate fell from 0.08 percent recorded in September 2017. Notably, the contraction reflected in the food sub-index of the headline inflation for October 2017. The marginal decrease in the prices of selected food items may be in line with seasonal levels, as the harvest season reaches its peak, thus making food items relatively available at various demand levels. Going forward, investment towards the provision of better farming inputs, technology, financing, and value addition across the agricultural value chain could help improve yield output and food security all through the year.
Crude oil price decreased in the review week. OPEC weekly basket price reduced by 3.5 percent to $42.06per barrel from November 4, 2016 to November 11, 2016, while Nigerias bonny light price decreased by 1.1 percent to $44.36per barrel in the same period. Global oil market refocused on oversupply, as indicated in the OPECs October crude data figures (global OPEC and Non-OPEC oil supply grew by 0.97mb/day to average 96.32mb/day and outpaced demand by 1.92mb/day).