The World Bank’s recent Africa Pulse publication reveals a revised 2018 growth rate forecast for Nigeria from the earlier projected 2.1 percent to 1.9 percent1 – representing a slight downward review. The revision was premised around what the institution termed “sluggish growth” amid rising debts, and a myriad of factors including declining oil production, disruptions in agricultural activities occasioned by the incessant herdsmen and farmers clashes, and effects of climate change. The contraction in the agricultural sector stalled crop production and dampened prospects of increased non-oil growth, all of which stunted economic recovery2. With the continued implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (2017-2020), there are strong possibilities that the economy may benefit from revenue sources other than oil in the near future.
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
Capital Importation: Since the dramatic decline in 2013, private and government sector investments in the sector have remained low in 2016. Budgetary Allocation: Budgetary allocations to the transpo
Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate: The growth performance of the Oil and Gas sector has been unsteady throughout years and declined most significantly in 2015Q4, following a positive growth recorded
The Naira/Dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at ?199/$ in the official market but depreciated from ?263/$ to $267 at the Bureau De Change (BDC) market segment this week. As the naira depreciates, the CBN forex restriction measures continue to widen the gap between the official rate and BDC, which has led to increased calls for naira devaluation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Business owners are among the major advocates for a relaxation of the forex restrictions set by the CBN, in order to enhance the level of economic activities.
Recently released survey report by the CBN shows an improvement in the availability of secured and unsecured banks credit and loans to households, corporate and small businesses in 2017Q3, and an optimistic outlook in 2017Q4. Among other indices, availability of overall secured and unsecured lending to households improved from -6.2 and -19.2 to -0.9 and -15.0 index points respectively; although still in the negative territory. Index for availability of credit to small businesses improved from -20.1 to -6.7. Lenders and respondents noted that anticipation of a brighter economic outlook, favorable liquidity positions, market share objectives and higher appetite for risk were major factors behind the increase.