Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

September 16, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 39)

external reserve fell marginally by from $25.36 billion to $25.16 billion.
The decline likely reflects the continued sales of dollar by CBN amid fall in
oil revenue. Similarly, the naira/dollar exchange rate depreciated marginally
by 0.5 percent to N424/$ at the parallel segmentas also seen in
preceding weeks. The continued depreciation likely points to banks low level
compliance to CBNs dollar sales directive made in August, 2016,
thus creating artificial dollar scarcity in the parallel market.

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Crude Oil Price

Crude Oil Price: Crude oil price attained a historical low of $30.7 in January 2016 largely due to excess global oil supply. Crude Oil Production and Export: Oil production has continued to fall in

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 23)

Recent Data on Nigerias Real GDP growth rate (Year-on-Year) declined by 2.47 percentage points, from 2.11 per cent in 2015Q4 to -0.36 percent in 2016Q11. This is the lowest GDP growth rate since 2004Q2 (-0.81 percent). The Oil sector continued to contract, as -1.89 percent growth was recorded in 2016Q1. The negative growth witnessed in the oil sector was likely driven by the fall in global oil prices by $9.732 and decline in domestic crude oil production, relative to preceding quarter. Similarly, the Non-oil sector witnessed a negative growth as it declined by 3.32 percentage points from 3.14 percent in 2015 Q4 to -0.18 percent in 2016Q1. The underperformance in the non-oil sector was driven by significant contractions in financial (by 17.69 percent), manufacturing (by 8.77 percent), and real estate (by 5.48 percent) sub-sectors. Given that the present economic fundamentals point to a likely recession in 2016Q2, the government can stir economic activities by speeding up the budget implementation process to spur growth in the non-oil sector and the economy at large. More so, the domestic production shock in the oil sector needs to be addressed to effectively leverage on the present marginal rise in crude oil prices.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 30)

Power sector analysis shows an increase in power generated by 3.01 percent from 2903.5mw to 2991.8mw between July 1, 2016 and July 8, 2016, with a peak of 3260.8mw on July 5, 2016. This is however, still below the highest (5074.7mw) recorded in February, 2016. The increase reflects improved use of hydro (water) for power generation. The easing out of gas constraint occasioned by recent pipeline repairs have also contributed to the increase in power generation. Improvements in power generation would be sustained if hydro measures are complemented with fast-tracked repairs on damaged gas channels and intensified efforts at tackling pipeline sabotage.