October 27, 2020

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 38)

he World Bank has approved of $750 million for the Power Sector Recovery Programme (PSRP) through the International Development Association (IDA).1 The disbursement plan to commence in 2021 is as follows: $426 million in 2021 and $162 million in 2022 and 2023, respectively, summing up to $750 million. The recovery plan being set up is to enable Nigeria achieve a more reliable electricity supply and improve the accountability of the power sector. Presently, approximately 47 percent of the population do not have access to national grid electricity. The population that has access are subjected to frequent power outages, a major constraint that costs the Nigerian economy around $28 billion, annually – equivalent to 2 percent of the GDP. Furthermore, the aim of the PSRP is to make Nigeria a more financially sustainable nation and it will achieve this by increasing the annual electricity supplied to the national grid by 4,500 MWh/hour by 2022. Aside improving service delivery, the additional liquidity will strengthen the balance sheet of distribution companies and enhance their ability to attract private finance. Furthermore, the government will be better positioned to utilize the resources previously used to bail out the power sector for other development spending.

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Nigeria Economic Review

Global economic growth remained fairly stable in 2016Q3 with baseline projections for global growth at 3.1 percent and 2.4 percent by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank respectively. Growth in developed countries was moderate but unevenly distributed: while the U.S and the UK showed improvements, growth in other economies remained tepid. Among emerging countries, India witnessed higher growth while growth in China remained constant but the Chinese Yuan continued to appreciate. Given that India is Nigerias major crude oil importer, improving economic conditions in India may translate into rising demand for Nigerias crude oil. However, the continuous appreciation of the Yuan poses significant inflationary threat in Nigeria given the high level of imports from China. Subdued global demand, weak trade, uncertainties in commodity prices and consequences of the Brexit were the key constraining factors to growth over the period. In addition, growth in Sub-Saharan African countries remained generally slow on the account of low commodity price, political turmoil, and inconsistent government policies.