Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

October 11, 2017

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 38)

Available data from NBS shows that Aviation sub-sector of the transport sector grew by o.15 percent in real terms in 2017Q2 down from 1.53 percent in 2017Q15. The decline is likely attributable to fall in year-on-year passenger and aircraft movement in the sub-sector, following increased air fare charges. 

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Nigeria-Poland Bilateral Trade: Identifying New Trade Opportunities

This paper examines the bilateral trade relationship between Nigeria andPoland for the period 1995 to 2012. It uses the Decision Support Model (DSM)and the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework (GIFF) to identifymarket for Nigerian exports in Poland.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 46)

On a Month-on-Month basis, average growth rate of selected food prices decreased in October 2017.  Precisely, contracting by 1.24 percent in October, average growth rate fell from 0.08 percent recorded in September 2017. Notably, the contraction reflected in the food sub-index of the headline inflation for October 2017. The marginal decrease in the prices of selected food items may be in line with seasonal levels, as the harvest season reaches its peak, thus making food items relatively available at various demand levels. Going forward, investment towards the provision of better farming inputs, technology, financing, and value addition across the agricultural value chain could help improve yield output and food security all through the year. 

Nigeria Economic Review

The global economy grew by 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (2016Q4) relative to 2.5 percent in 2016Q3, due to rising investment and consumption demands in developed and emerging economies as well as a rise in commodity prices. However, over the entire year, global GDP growth stood at 2.6 percent in 2016, relative to the growth of 3.09 percent recorded in 2015. Notably, output grew progressively in the US over the year, while the steady growth recorded in the UK since the start of the year stalled in 2016Q4. Also, the declining growth recorded in France since 2015 took a positive turn in 2016Q4, the rest of the Eurozone witnessed a fall in output in the quarter. While emerging economies recorded mixed experiences, many Sub-Saharan African countries showed signs of recovery in the period.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 51)

Recently released data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that there was significant increase in Nigerias total merchandise trade for 2016Q3. Basically, the total merchandise trade increased (quarter-on-quarter) by 16.29 percent to N4, 722 billion in 2016Q3;owing to 29.1 percent increase in exports and 6.2 percent rise in imports. Oil exports increased by 31 percent to N1, 943 billion, while non-oil exports increased by 20.5 percent to N440 billion. However, on the aggregate, Nigeria recorded yet another trade deficit of N104 billion, indicating continuous higher imports relative to exports. Overall, though there is improvement in the performance of non-oil sector, however, this is insufficient to effectively complement the loss in oil trade sustained since the beginning of oil price crash. This suggests that diversification into non-oil sector may not be able to rescue the economy in the short term. However, while the diversification efforts should be sustained, eliminating hurdles in oil production may be instrumental to higher exports, especially as oil price increase is gaining momentum.