Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

August 21, 2017

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 32)

Available data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in oil and other petroleum production between 2015 and 2016. Crude oil production fell by 16 percent, from 777.5 million barrels in 2015 to 656.8 million barrels in 2016. This is also indicative of the number of exploratory rig count that fell from 15 rigs to 8 rigs in 2016. Similarly, Gas production declined by 10 percent to 2,711 million one thousand standard cubic feet (mscf) in 2016. The significant decline in crude oil and petroleum production, brings to perspective the extent of the damage caused on production pipelines by militants in the Niger Delta region in 2016. It is therefore important to invest national resources in maintaining domestic peace and security, especially in resource-rich regions of the country.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 2)

Inflation rate rose slightly to 9.4 percent in November 2015 from 9.3 percent in the previous month. This rise is attributed to price increase in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, and Transportation costs which extends from shortages of petrol across the country. The food sub-index grew by 0.2 percentage points to 10. 1 percent while, the Core sub-index declined by 0.2 percentage points to 8.7 percent within the period. The inflationary up-tick points to the need to curtail the rising food prices by increasing the supply of petrol in the country. 

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 10)

Nigerias external reserve rose to its 19-month high in the week under review (March 3, 2017 to March 10, 2017). Precisely, the reserve improved by a daily average-percentage-increase of 0.21 percent, from $29.79 billion on March 3, 2017 to $30.04 billion on March 10, 2017  the highest level since August 2015. The rising reserve at the backdrop of steady revenue from improved domestic crude oil production/prices and forex inflows from rising exports, has reduced pressure on the Naira the naira has witnessed marginal but steady appreciation. While the recent improvement in oil revenue is a welcome development, concerted efforts need be made to develop the Non-oil sector so as to mitigate future oil revenue shocks.  

Africa Economic Update (Issue 2)

Business activities in Africa slightly improved in February 2017 albeit at a slow rate. Sales Managers Index (SMI) for Africa an assessment of business condition in Pan-African Economy increased by 0.4 index points from 52.2 points in January 2017 to 52.6 points in February 2017. Sub-Saharan African countries experienced better business activities than North Africa in the review period. The two largest economies in the region, Nigeria (48.5 index points) and South Africa (49.2 Index points) registered contraction in the review period as Nigeria remained in recession while high unemployment remained a problem in South Africa. The growth in SMI recorded in the review period is driven by improvement in business confidence and sales price which outweighed the fall in other components market growth, sales output and staffing level. 

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 46)

The Executive council recently approved a three-year external borrowing plan (2016-2018) which specifies external borrowing of approximately $30 billion (to be sourced mostly from MDBs) for infrastructure development. Although, the plan is yet to be approved by the Senate, the planned concessional loans for infrastructural development would imply inflows of foreign exchange which could help moderate the exchange rate volatilities in the near term, and offer potential improvement in business productivity and job creation.