Inflation rate rose in December 2018 for the second consecutive month to 11.44 percent, 0.16 percentage points higher than the 11.28 percent recorded in November 2018.1 The rise in inflation was driven by the food component of inflation which increased to 13.56 percent from 13.30 percent within the same period. Further disaggregated data shows that the highest increments were recorded in the price of basic food items such as bread, cereals, fish, meat, potatoes, yam and other tubers. Core inflation experienced no increment from the previous month, stagnating at 9.80 percent. Seasonal demand effect is closely linked to the rise in inflation given that the holiday season is associated with a rise in the price of food items. In the coming month, we expect the inflation rate to continue on the upward trend considering the increase in election-related spending. The current monetary policy parameters should remain unchanged until a clearer picture of the effect of the election on economic indicators is known
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
Recent ranking by the World Bank, portrayed Nigeria as having a poor business environment based on the ease of doing business in 2016. Although, Nigeria moved one position forward from previous (2015) ranking, to attain the 169th position out of the 190 global economies reviewed4. This poor rating is resultant of a myriad of factors, including: difficulties in starting a business, enforcing contracts, inaccessibility to credit, tax payment issues, as well as unreliable supply of energy, and labour market regulations. Going forward, improving the efficiency of tax administration by adopting the latest technology to facilitate the preparation, filling and payment of taxes will be beneficial for the business community.
Nigerias external reserve fell marginally by from $25.36 billion to $25.16 billion. The decline likely reflects the continued sales of dollar by CBN amid fall in oil revenue. Similarly, the naira/dollar exchange rate depreciated marginally by 0.5 percent to N424/$ at the parallel segmentas also seen in preceding weeks. The continued depreciation likely points to banks low level compliance to CBNs dollar sales directive made in August, 2016, thus creating artificial dollar scarcity in the parallel market.
The paper highlights the importance of oil sector transparency in order to support governments push towards structural reforms and inclusive growth.
The Nigeria Economic Chart Pack is a graphical display of relevant and periodic data to capture trends in the domestic economy. The report aims to illustrate the changes in economic trends with the aid of descriptive charts and a short note that describes the trend and drivers for the graphs.