Recently released demographic figures by the NBS shows an upward progression in population and its composition. Specifically, Nigeria’s population reached 193 million in 2016, growing at an annual average of 3.25 percent1. Going by the demographic characteristics, the population pyramid reveals that over 41 percent of the population lies between ages 0-14 – a composition of children and adolescents. This implies that fertility rate has been high, as such, a corresponding high dependency ratio. The growing share of this population age imposes supply pressure on available infrastructural amenities; from education to health systems. Similarly, the growing youth population (16-30 years) exerts pressure on the labor market, given their working-class ages
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
Nigerias Bonny light price declined by 7.1 percent from $40.19 per barrel on March 24, 2016 to $37.32 per barrel on April 1, 20162. OPEC weekly basket price also decreased by 3 percent from $35.81 per barrel to $34.74 per barrel within the same period3. The remerged downward trend in crude oil price is traceable to concerns over the likely failure of the oil production freeze deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran4. The outcome of the oil production freeze meeting which is scheduled to hold on April 17, 2016, will give further direction for oil supply regulation.
Latest figures of FDI flows to Nigeria show a decline of 27 per cent from $4.7 billion in 2014 to $3.4 billion in 20152, representing its lowest value since 2005. This decline is largely attributed to the oil price slump, which has generally increased uncertainty in the economy, with adverse effects on investors confidence. The fall in FDI flows was witnessed in most resource based economies in Africa, as FDI flows to the continent fell by 31 percent in 2015. The forex controls in place in Nigeria has also exacerbated the uncertainty in economy, and created obstacles for both domestic and foreign investors. Thus a review of the forex restrictions could send positive signals to investors.
Internally generated revenue by 35 states for the 2016 fiscal year increased by 17.5 percent to N802 billion from N683 billion generated in the preceding year. A breakdown of the IGR shows that the increase was driven by PAYE, Direct assessment, Road taxes, Revenue from MDAs and other taxes. The highest and lowest revenue generating states were Lagos (38%) and Ebonyi (0.1%) respectively. An improvement in the efficiency of the tax system could improve the contributions of the IGR to overall government revenue. Particularly, incorporating workers in small stores, agricultural and informal businesses into the tax system; building capacity of tax officials and computerizing their operations; as well as investing in quality data collection and access could provide some quick wins.
Capital Importation And Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate And Contribution To GDP (Construction Sector)
Capital Importation: Capital expenditure into the construction sector remained above 10 percent since 2005 until 2015. Similar to the manufacturing sector, overall capital imported into the constructi