Recently released GDP report for the first quarter of 2018 shows a stronger growth in GDP, relative to the corresponding quarter of 2017. Driven particularly by growth in the Oil sector, Real GDP grew by 1.95 percent (Year-on-Year) in 2018Q11. In terms of sectoral growth, oil sector rose remarkably to 14.77 percent, a 30.37 percent increase from 2017Q1. Non-oil sector grew by 0.76 percent (Year on Year), slightly up from 0.8 percent- this marginal increase was driven mainly by Agriculture (Crop production), in addition to Manufacturing, Financial institutions and insurance, Transportation and Storage, and Information and Communication
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
The considerable increase in inflation continued to be driven by exchange-rate-pass-through from imported items as well as the lingering scarcity in the availability of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). One of the key ways to reduce inflationary pressures in the near term is to improve the supply of PMS to filling stations. In the medium to long term, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) may need to revitalize local refining and bridge the gap between the supply and demand for PMS by households and businesses.
Recent NBS data shows a significant decline in power generated in 2016Q2. Precisely, power generated declined by 31 percent (quarter on quarter) from a total quarterly average of 92,352 MWH in 2016Q1 to 63,692.39 MWH in 2016Q2. Remarkably, the reoccurrences of pipeline vandalism in 2016Q2 prompted the shortage of gas for power generation. Thus, there were about eight recorded system collapses in the quarter which led to several days of power outages. However, subsequent quarterly declines in power generation could be averted if efforts to repair vandalized pipelines and adopt hydro sources are intensified.
This brief examines the beneficiaries of government expenditure in the social sectors of education and health, and answers the question of equity in the provision of social services among different income groups.
Nigerias Petroleum Products Imports statistics show a gradual reduction in the volume and value of petroleum imports (PMS, AGO, HHK) between May and September 2016. Specifically, volume of imports declined by 34.1 percent for PMS, 37.6 percent for AGO, and 60.3 percent for HHK in the period.The significant decline in imports in the reporting periods may be as a result of persistent forex scarcity issues faced by importers. On account of stagnation in domestic production of refined petroleum products, continuous decline in oil imports may create a demand gap with upward pressure on gasoline prices in the economy.