The recent NBS survey found that 40.1% – 82.9 million – Nigerians are living in poverty with the national poverty line estimated at ₦137,430per year 1. As such, 4 out of 10 Nigerians spend less than ₦376 per day on both food and non-food basic needs. A further disaggregation shows that the population in rural and urban areas living in poverty are 52.1% and 18% respectively. On inequality, the report found that the national Gini coefficient was 35.1 while the coefficient for the rural and urban population are 32.8 and 31.9 respectively. The level of inequality in Nigeria is comparable to that of in India (35.2) but significantly below countries like South Africa (62.5)2. Based on the experiences of countries that have improved the living standard of a large proportion of their population, Nigeria will need to achieve sustained and high economic growth, substantial infrastructural development, provide large-scale structured and targeted poverty alleviation programs alongside social development programs. In doing this, the government will not only provide immediate relief to the poor but will also enhance the income-generating potential of citizens and minimize the risk of falling into poverty.
June 1, 2020
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 19)
This report provides an evidence-based analysis of the state of the Nigerian economy in a bid to inform economic policies in Nigeria. The report presents some analyses of significant economic events in Nigeria within the period, and provides an outlook on what policymakers, businesses, and individuals should expect in subsequent quarters of 2016. It also provides valuable insights into potential drivers of the economic trends and outlines expectations for subsequent quarters of the year. The area of focus are Global Economic Performance, Domestic Economic Performance, External Sector Performance, and Sectoral Performance.
Available data from NBS shows that Aviation sub-sector of the transport sector grew by o.15 percent in real terms in 2017Q2 down from 1.53 percent in 2017Q15. The decline is likely attributable to fall in year-on-year passenger and aircraft movement in the sub-sector, following increased air fare charges.
Recently released World Economic Outlook by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects economic activities to increase significantly in developing countries- especially Nigeria. Annual real output is expected to grow by 0.8 percent in 2017 from the contraction of 1.5 percent in 20161. Improvement in economic activities is hinged on prospective favorable effects of continued increase in commodity export price (Crude oil is expected to increase to $55 per barrel in 2017 compared to $46 in 2016).
International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa by 0.2 percentage points, while retaining growth estimates for Nigeria and South Africa in 2017. Precisely, growth rate forecast for Africa was reduced from 2.8 percent in January 2017 forecast to 2.6 percent in April 2017 forecast while growth estimates were retained at 0.8 percent for both South Africa and Nigeria. In contrast, global economic growth outlook was increased by 0.4 percentage points from 3.1 percent to 3.5 percent within the same period. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is hampered by adverse cyclical and supply side factors, weak fiscal buffers and rising public debt amongst non-commodity exporters as well as severe drought was experienced in Eastern and Southern Africa