Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
May 3, 2016
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 18)
Inflation
rate continued its upward trajectory in the week under review. Specifically,
the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.39 per cent, from 11.38 per cent
in February to 12.77 per cent in March, 20161. Remarkably, this is the
highest rate since July 2012, representing a 4-year high. While both components
of the CPI rose in the period, the food sub-index was largely the main driver
of the increase in the CPI, with a growth rate of 1.39 per cent between
February and March. The persistent scarcity in petroleum products, especially
Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), has increased transportation costs and the price of
food items.
Related
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 45)
Crude oil prices recorded increase during the review week. Global benchmark, Brent price increased from $61.42 to $63.522. Nigerias Bonny light gained 9.6 percent to trade at $64.78 per barrel. The weeks rise was at the backdrop of further prospective cuts agreement at OPECs meeting in November 2017 and political tensions and uncertainties in Saudi Arabia given that these events may likely reduce supply and support demand in the near term. Meanwhile, global crude oil market events have been favorable to Nigeria, as the price of bonny light at approximately $65 per barrel, reflects the highest in more than two years.
Nigeria Economic Review
Global economic growth remained
fairly stable in 2016Q3 with baseline projections for global growth at 3.1 percent and 2.4
percent by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank respectively.
Growth in developed countries was moderate but unevenly distributed: while the
U.S and the UK showed improvements, growth in other economies remained tepid.
Among emerging countries, India witnessed higher growth while growth in China
remained constant but the Chinese Yuan continued to appreciate. Given that
India is Nigerias major crude oil importer, improving economic conditions in
India may translate into rising demand for Nigerias crude oil. However, the
continuous appreciation of the Yuan poses significant inflationary threat in
Nigeria given the high level of imports from China. Subdued global demand, weak
trade, uncertainties in commodity prices and consequences of the Brexit were
the key constraining factors to growth over the period. In addition, growth in
Sub-Saharan African countries remained generally slow on the account of low
commodity price, political turmoil, and inconsistent government policies.