The World Economic Outlook report, recently released by the World Bank, reduced its growth projection for Nigeria to 2.1 percent in 20181, from 2.5 percent2. The new growth projection is considerably lower than the 3.5 percent 2018 growth rate projected by the federal government of Nigeria. However, at 2.1 percent, the growth is a significant improvement from actual 2017 growth rate of 0.83 percent; and this outlook has been hinged on improving oil prices, revenue and production, and foreign exchange measures that contribute to better foreign exchange availability.
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
This brief highlights the findings of a cost effectiveness analysis conducted on two malaria intervention programs implemented in Jigawa State, Nigeria under the National Malaria Control Programme: the long-lasting insecticide treated nets intervention and the indoor residual spraying program.
OPEC weekly basket price decreased marginally from $45.95 on June 24, 2016 to $45.26 on July 1, 2016,while Nigerias bonny light fell by $1, from $48.90 to $47.91. The apparent decline in crude oil price was driven by lingering market demand uncertainty, following the unexpected Brexit referendum. More so, ease in supply disruptions in Nigeria and Canada may have contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Going forward, until there is greater regulatory precision on global oil output levels, prices may likely remain stuck or continue to exhibit a downward trend. Although, Nigerias fiscal constraints slightly relaxed with oil production increasing in the review week (following repairs on sabotaged pipeline channels), potential global crude oil oversupply threatens governments revenues. However, oversupply threats could be reduced if there is a consensus on oil production quotas in the upcoming OPEC meeting.
Latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report by the International Monetary Fund reveals that Nigerias economy will grow by 1.9 percent in 2018 an unchanged stance from earlier projections. However, the figure is 2.9 percentage points lower than the 4.8 percent 2018 estimated growth rate in Nigerias ERGP (Economic Recovery and Growth Plan) 2 showing a very large disparity between domestic and international growth forecasts for Nigeria. The Funds projection however seems to have taken into cognizance underlying factors that could slow growth in the medium term: faster pace of population growth relative to GDP growth3, poor policy implementation, banking system fragilities and foreign exchange market segmentation.