Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

March 8, 2018

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 14)

Nigeria’s Apex bank held the first meeting of its reconstituted Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for the year 2018. Following a detailed review of domestic macroeconomic events, the MPC deemed it fit to retain all rates: MPR at 14% (which has remained at a record high of 14 percent since July 2016), CRR 22.5%, Liquidity Ratio […]

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Nigeria’s Apex bank held the first meeting of its reconstituted Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for the year 2018. Following a detailed review of domestic macroeconomic events, the MPC deemed it fit to retain all rates: MPR at 14% (which has remained at a record high of 14 percent since July 2016), CRR 22.5%, Liquidity Ratio 30% and Asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR1. The unchanged monetary policy can be attributed to the MPC’s satisfaction with the continued moderation in economic indices as well as the gradual return to macroeconomic stability. Going forward, fiscal policy authorities should consolidate these positive outcomes given monetary policy inaction.




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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 24)

Crude oil price increased, in the week under review, to its highest price in 2016. Nigerias bonny light increased by $1.38 from $48.02 per barrel on May 20, 2016 to $49.64 per barrel on May 27, 2016, while Brent crude was sold for $50 per barrel on May 26, 2016. The catalyst for price gains in the period under review is the supply-side contractions, with unplanned production shortages in Nigeria, Canada and Iraq. The upward trend of prices may unlock more supplies in subsequent weeks, but the OPEC meeting scheduled for June 2, 2016, could moderate the effect. Nigeria is expected to benefit from crude oil price rising above the $38 per barrel benchmark. Unfortunately, supply disruptions continue to negatively affect oil revenue and may have contributed to the depletion of external reserve by over $153 millionthis week. The federal government, in collaboration with relevant security agencies, should find a lasting solution to the vandalism of oil pipelines and production facilities.

Nigeria Economic Update(Issue 31)

Recent data on Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates significant increase in general price level for the sixth consecutive month. Headline inflation increased by 0.9 percentage points from 15.6 per cent recorded in May to 16.5 percent in June the highest rate recorded since October 2005 (an 11-year high). The core sub-index increased from 15.1 percent to 16.2 percent while the food sub-index stood at 15.3 percent, an increase of 0.4 percent from the preceding month of May. Higher prices of domestic/imported food and other items, as well as increased energy cost were major drivers of the increase. This is probably explained by the exchange-rate pass-through, given the significant depreciation of the naira.

Africa Economic Update (Issue 4)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa by 0.2 percentage points, while retaining growth estimates for Nigeria and South Africa in 2017. Precisely, growth rate forecast for Africa was reduced from 2.8 percent in January 2017 forecast to 2.6 percent in April 2017 forecast while growth estimates were retained at 0.8 percent for both South Africa and Nigeria. In contrast, global economic growth outlook was increased by 0.4 percentage points from 3.1 percent to 3.5 percent within the same period. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is hampered by adverse cyclical and supply side factors, weak fiscal buffers and rising public debt amongst non-commodity exporters as well as severe drought was experienced in Eastern and Southern Africa

Net Domestic Credit And Currency In Circulation (CIC):

Net Domestic Credit: Rising net credit to government and private sector have driven the upward trend in NDC, especially post-2008. In 2016Q1, NDC grew largely on the account of the rise in banking sec