Consumer prices for the month of December 2019 increased by 0.13 percentage points from the preceding month which stood at 11.85% 1. This rate was 0.54% percentage points higher than December 2018. The rise in inflation was driven by a rise across all components, with the core sub-index growing by 0.34% to 9.33% and food sub-index by 0.19% to 14.67% over a month. The rise in inflation was driven in part by an increase in access to credit, as indicated in the Central Bank of Nigeria Credit Condition Survey. The survey conducted notes that there was an increase in supply of secured loans to households which was expected to increase in Q1 2020 as well as a rise in overall credit supply to the corporate sector2. Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months given that the closure of the Nigeria-Benin border has driven food prices upwards resulting in cost-push inflation. In addition, the CBN’s directive to commercial banks to give out 60% of their deposits as loans to the real sector could potentially lead to demand-pull inflation. Given that food inflation is at the core of the rising inflation, initiatives should be put in place by both state and non-state actors to increase the productivity of farmers in order to transition farmers from smallholder to large-scale farming.
February 11, 2020
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 04)
The paper presents an elaborate econometric analysis of a number of key macroeconomic indicators to oil revenue and examines the results of oil revenue fluctuations.
This study reviews and assesses the 2016 budget of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in line with IMFsbudget assessment indicators, namely: comprehensiveness, transparency, and realism. The assessment is based on clear understanding of the present administrations objectives, which are: to achieve socio-economic and infrastructural development, to diversify the Nigerian economy, and to achieve improved security of lives and properties.
Recent domestic Crude oil statistics from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), reveals an increase in total crude oil export sales in December 2016. Relative to November 2016, total export sales of crude oil rose from $166.18 million to $195.40 million in December 2016 representing 17.6 percentage (Month-on-Month) increase. The increase is attributable to a rise in crude oil production following a drastic (Year-on-Year) reduction in pipeline vandalism in the preceding month. Given that improvement in oil revenue is critical to fiscal sustainability and external balance, intensified efforts should be implemented towards the maintenance and sustainability of peace in the Niger Delta Region.