Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

October 23, 2015

Nigeria Economic Review (First Half Report 2015)

The modest growth in the
global output witnessed in the first quarter of 2015 was driven mainly by
advanced economies, particularly the United States. Growth slowed down significantly
in emerging and developing economies, primarily natural resource-dependent
countries which were adversely affected by falling commodity prices.

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Real Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) growth in Nigeria continued to decelerate in 2015H1, with a growth rate
of 2.4 percent in the 2015Q2. Non-oil sector remained the driver of growth, in
contrast to oil-GDP which witnessed a significant negative growth. The huge
drop in global crude oil prices was the main cause of the contraction in
Oil-GDP growth.

The slump in oil prices
resulted in a substantial fall in oil revenue by 41.2 percent in 2015Q1. A
remarkable increase in non-oil revenue in April dampened the effect of the fall
in oil revenue in the first half of 2015. In general, total federally collected
revenue increased by 3.4 percent in 2015H1. Fiscal deficits which increased at
the start of 2015, was reversed at the last month of 2015Q1, an impact of the
austerity measures which has led to a consistent decline in government
expenditure.




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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 25)

Crude oil price continued to increase in the period under review, reaching its 2016 peak at $50.30 on June 2, 2016. Specifically, OPEC weekly basket price increased by 1.43 percent from $44.65 on May 27, 2016 to $45.29 on June 3, 2016. Brent was sold for $49.96 on June 3, 2016. The present rise in crude oil price can be attributed to oil production shocks in several oil-exporting countries, and the general expectation of a further cut in output following the OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 2, 2016. However, the OPEC meeting ended with no agreement on production quotas. In Nigeria, oil production level increased in the period under review, following repairs on some of the damaged oil and gas facilities. Precisely, Nigerias output increased by 200,000 barrels on June 3, 2016 to 1.6 million barrels.

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