Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

October 23, 2014

Nigeria Economic Review (First Half Report 2014)

Globally,
advanced economies showed strong signs of recovery during 2014H1 despite the
adverse effect of the severe winter (especially on the United States economy)
while economic activities slowed and growth was below projection in emerging
and developing economies.

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Total
federally collected revenue increased to N2.42 trillion in 2014Q1 compared to
N2.20 trillion in 2013Q4 as a result of a significant increase in crude oil and
gas exports to some countries like India, Malaysia and China. Also, the federal
government consistently incurred fiscal deficit from 2013Q1 to 2014Q1; the
level of deficit increased drastically in 2013Q4 and was sustained through 2014Q1.

Inflation
rate remained within the Central Banks target (6 9 percent) for 2014
although it ticked up marginally from 7.7 percent in February to 8.0 percent in
May. Inflationary pressures are expected in the second half of the year but it
is expected that monetary policies and supply-side interventions can be used to
cushion the effect.




Related

 

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 19)

A recent report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) at the subnational level decreased slightly between 2014 and 2015. Specifically, the report shows that on the average, the IGR of all 36 states declined by 3.6 per cent from N707.9 billion in 2014 to N683.6 billion in 20157. A further disaggregation reveals that while IGR in 11 states improved in 2015 compared to 2014, IGR in 24 states were below their 2014 levels. As expected, Lagos state generated the most IGR during the period. Given that domestic resource mobilization is the most viable alternative to complement the shortfalls (driven by lower oil prices) in budgetary allocations to states from the federal government, state governments need to do more to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of revenue collection.

Oil Revenues, Institutions And Macroeconomic Performance In Nigeria

The paper presents an elaborate econometric analysis of a number of key macroeconomic indicators to oil revenue and examines the results of oil revenue fluctuations.