Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

October 23, 2014

Nigeria Economic Review (First Half Report 2014)

Globally,
advanced economies showed strong signs of recovery during 2014H1 despite the
adverse effect of the severe winter (especially on the United States economy)
while economic activities slowed and growth was below projection in emerging
and developing economies.

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Total
federally collected revenue increased to N2.42 trillion in 2014Q1 compared to
N2.20 trillion in 2013Q4 as a result of a significant increase in crude oil and
gas exports to some countries like India, Malaysia and China. Also, the federal
government consistently incurred fiscal deficit from 2013Q1 to 2014Q1; the
level of deficit increased drastically in 2013Q4 and was sustained through 2014Q1.

Inflation
rate remained within the Central Banks target (6 9 percent) for 2014
although it ticked up marginally from 7.7 percent in February to 8.0 percent in
May. Inflationary pressures are expected in the second half of the year but it
is expected that monetary policies and supply-side interventions can be used to
cushion the effect.




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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 15)

Recent data on Nigerias labour market points to a rise in the rate of unemployment and underemployment in 2015Q4. Specifically, compared to 2015Q3, the rate of unemployment and underemployment rose to 10.4 per cent and 18.7 per cent from 9.9 percent and 17.4 percent respectively. These statistics however masks the true situation of the youth employment in Nigeria. Disaggregated data by age category shows that unemployment and underemployment within the youth age category (15-24) was remarkably higher than the national average, at 19 and 34.5 per cent respectively.

Extra-ECOWAS Trade And Investment Flows: Any Evidence Of Business Cycles Transmission

This study investigates the effects of merchandise trade and investment flows on the transmission of business cycles between members of ECOWAS and the major trading partnersbetween 1985 and 2014. Total trade and FDI significantly influence the transmission of business cycles with elasticities of 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively in the long run. There are little variations across the major trading partners and other measures of trade flows. Intra-industry trade flows with all partners, EU and USA influences the cross-country business cycles with elasticities of 1.0%, 0.5% and 1.8%, respectively.