Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

February 1, 2017

Nigeria Economic Review

Global economic growth remained
fairly stable in 2016Q3 with baseline projections for global growth at 3.1 percent and 2.4
percent by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank respectively.
Growth in developed countries was moderate but unevenly distributed: while the
U.S and the UK showed improvements, growth in other economies remained tepid.
Among emerging countries, India witnessed higher growth while growth in China
remained constant but the Chinese Yuan continued to appreciate. Given that
India is Nigerias major crude oil importer, improving economic conditions in
India may translate into rising demand for Nigerias crude oil. However, the
continuous appreciation of the Yuan poses significant inflationary threat in
Nigeria given the high level of imports from China. Subdued global demand, weak
trade, uncertainties in commodity prices and consequences of the Brexit were
the key constraining factors to growth over the period. In addition, growth in
Sub-Saharan African countries remained generally slow on the account of low
commodity price, political turmoil, and inconsistent government policies.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 36)

Power sector statistics show a significant increase in power generated from August 12 to August 19, 2016. Precisely, power generated increased by 2.2 percent to 3953.6MW(a 4-month high). Increased water reserves in dams for hydro generating plants occasioned by seasonal adjustments (rainy season), led to improved power generation. Additionally, in a bid to further improve and sustain power generation, the federal government received a $100 million credit facility from India. However, consistent power supply could be jeopardized if the development is not aided by improved distribution by DISCOs.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 36)

Recently released GDP figures reveals that the three major sectors recorded positive and negative growth rates individually in 2017Q2. Firstly, Agricultural sector grew Year on Year by 3.01 percent, down from 3.39 percent in 2017Q1- driven by weaker output in crop production and Fishing sub-sectors. This is not unconnected with the planting season and the shortage of grainsfor livestock/fish respectively.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 38)

Recent NBS data on Nigerias real GDP growth rate declined from -0.36 percent in 2016Q1 to -2.06 percent in 2016Q2. With negative GDP growth rate in two consecutive quarters, Nigeria records its first recession in 23 years. Both the oil and non-oil sectors continued to contract by -15.59 and -0.20 percentage points, respectively, relative to preceding quarter. The worsening growth rate in the oil sector was largely driven by the decline in domestic crude oil production by 14.5 percent relative to preceding quarter