July 4, 2016
CSEA Annual Report
Crude oil prices recorded increase during the review week. Global benchmark, Brent price increased from $61.42 to $63.522. Nigerias Bonny light gained 9.6 percent to trade at $64.78 per barrel. The weeks rise was at the backdrop of further prospective cuts agreement at OPECs meeting in November 2017 and political tensions and uncertainties in Saudi Arabia given that these events may likely reduce supply and support demand in the near term. Meanwhile, global crude oil market events have been favorable to Nigeria, as the price of bonny light at approximately $65 per barrel, reflects the highest in more than two years.
The global economy grew by 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (2016Q4) relative to 2.5 percent in 2016Q3, due to rising investment and consumption demands in developed and emerging economies as well as a rise in commodity prices. However, over the entire year, global GDP growth stood at 2.6 percent in 2016, relative to the growth of 3.09 percent recorded in 2015. Notably, output grew progressively in the US over the year, while the steady growth recorded in the UK since the start of the year stalled in 2016Q4. Also, the declining growth recorded in France since 2015 took a positive turn in 2016Q4, the rest of the Eurozone witnessed a fall in output in the quarter. While emerging economies recorded mixed experiences, many Sub-Saharan African countries showed signs of recovery in the period.
International rating body, Fitch, has projected higher economic growth for Nigeria in 2018. The body estimated that Nigerias economy will grow by 2.6 percent, slightly higher compared to projections from the International Monetary Fund (2.1 percent) and The World Bank (1 percent). A myriad of factors may have driven the projected increase: improved availability of forex for the non-oil sector, higher government capital expenditure capability driven by more oil revenue, and fiscal stimulus. However, the relatively strong economic growth projected by Fitch and IMF may be hampered