This study develops a comparable Human Development Index for subnational government in Nigeria. While built on the UNDP approach, we extend the generic framework to address challenges at the subnational level such as comparable indicator, data unavailability, and estimation technique. The result shows a wide disparity across states in their human development, with states within the southern region recording more impressive performance. We further examine the key economic and political drivers of the observed variations across the state and found fiscal sustainability and geopolitical zoning as the key determinants.
Policy Brief & Alerts
Globally, advanced economies showed strong signs of recovery during 2014H1 despite the adverse effect of the severe winter (especially on the United States economy) while economic activities slowed and growth was below projection in emerging and developing economies.
Crude oil price decreased in the review week. OPEC weekly basket price reduced by 3.5 percent to $42.06per barrel from November 4, 2016 to November 11, 2016, while Nigerias bonny light price decreased by 1.1 percent to $44.36per barrel in the same period. Global oil market refocused on oversupply, as indicated in the OPECs October crude data figures (global OPEC and Non-OPEC oil supply grew by 0.97mb/day to average 96.32mb/day and outpaced demand by 1.92mb/day).
International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa by 0.2 percentage points, while retaining growth estimates for Nigeria and South Africa in 2017. Precisely, growth rate forecast for Africa was reduced from 2.8 percent in January 2017 forecast to 2.6 percent in April 2017 forecast while growth estimates were retained at 0.8 percent for both South Africa and Nigeria. In contrast, global economic growth outlook was increased by 0.4 percentage points from 3.1 percent to 3.5 percent within the same period. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is hampered by adverse cyclical and supply side factors, weak fiscal buffers and rising public debt amongst non-commodity exporters as well as severe drought was experienced in Eastern and Southern Africa