Policy Brief & Alerts

August 22, 2017

An Analysis Of The Nigerian Economic Growth And Recovery Plan

This Paper examines the response of the Nigerian government to the ongoing recession in
the domestic economy, particularly in the context of the recently released Economic
Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) for 2017-2020. It also provides an analysis of
key questions regarding the suitability, achievability, and prospect of the
ERGP. The second section of the brief runs through the state of the Nigerian
economy with a focus on the cause and drivers of the ongoing recession. The
third section reviews the objectives, implementation strategy, and expected
outcomes of the ERGP over the medium-term. The fourth section weighs on the
potentials of the ERGP by analyzing some pertinent questions: Is the proposed
recovery plan and policies well-targeted to address prevailing economic crises
in Nigerian economy? 

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 16)

Nigerias Bonny light price declined by 7.1 percent from $40.19 per barrel on March 24, 2016 to $37.32 per barrel on April 1, 20162. OPEC weekly basket price also decreased by 3 percent from $35.81 per barrel to $34.74 per barrel within the same period3. The remerged downward trend in crude oil price is traceable to concerns over the likely failure of the oil production freeze deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran4. The outcome of the oil production freeze meeting which is scheduled to hold on April 17, 2016, will give further direction for oil supply regulation.

Crude Oil Price

Crude Oil Price: Crude oil price attained a historical low of $30.7 in January 2016 largely due to excess global oil supply. Crude Oil Production and Export: Oil production has continued to fall in

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 10)

Nigerias external reserve rose to its 19-month high in the week under review (March 3, 2017 to March 10, 2017). Precisely, the reserve improved by a daily average-percentage-increase of 0.21 percent, from $29.79 billion on March 3, 2017 to $30.04 billion on March 10, 2017  the highest level since August 2015. The rising reserve at the backdrop of steady revenue from improved domestic crude oil production/prices and forex inflows from rising exports, has reduced pressure on the Naira the naira has witnessed marginal but steady appreciation. While the recent improvement in oil revenue is a welcome development, concerted efforts need be made to develop the Non-oil sector so as to mitigate future oil revenue shocks.  

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 52)

Recently released population estimate figures by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, show a significant increase in Nigerias population, based on the 2006 census. Notably, total population grew by an estimated 40 percent from 2006, to 193 million persons in 2016. Also, disaggregate demographic data from 2007 to 2016, reveals an increase in the number of males (74 million to 99 million) and females (71 million to 95 million), with a 2016 gender (males to females) percentage ratio of 51:49. The high rate of population growth can be attributed to the improvements in average annual rate of natural increase the difference between crude birth rate and death rate. As in preceding years, the composition of children and youths make up the highest share of the population growth. This presents a potential increase in the rate of labour supply. Going forward, there is need for the government to support rapid job creation in order to check the potential upsurge in unemployment rate.