Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

August 21, 2017

Africa Economic Update (Issue 7)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly revised upward growth projections for SubSaharan Africa by 0.1 percentage point in 2017 but retained growth estimates for 2018.1 Precisely, growth estimate in the region was increased from 2.6 percent in April 2017 forecast to 2.7 percent in July 2017 forecast, while it was retained at 3.5 percent for 2018. The slight upward revision in 2017 is attributable to an upgrade in South Africas growth prospect from 0.8 percent in April 2017 to 1.0 percent in July 2017. Despite the upward 2017 revision, 2018 forecast for South Africa was revised down from 1.6 percent in April 2017 to 1.2 percent in July 2017. Growth forecast for Nigeria remained unchanged at 0.8 percent and 1.9 percent for 2017 and 2018 respectively.

Download Label
March 13, 2018 - 4:00 am
application/pdf
381.07 kB
v.1.7 (stable)

Related

 

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 21)

Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the value of capital imported to Nigeria declined by 54.34 percent; from $1.56 billion 2015Q4to $710.97 million in 2016Q11. This is the lowest value since the data was first released in 2007. Huge declines in Portfolio Investment (71.54 percent) and other Investment (44.84 percent) were the major drivers of the trend within the period. A myriad of factors have contributed to the decline in investments. The plunge in crude oil prices, and the resultant negative signals on investors confidence, was a key factor. This was exacerbated by the FOREX restrictions and delays in the assentation of 2016 Appropriation Bill. While the slight increases in oil prices and the recent signing of the budget into law could improve the general economic prospects, monetary authorities need to proffer solutions to the negative effects of the current FOREX restrictions on investments.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 51)

Recently released data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that there was significant increase in Nigerias total merchandise trade for 2016Q3. Basically, the total merchandise trade increased (quarter-on-quarter) by 16.29 percent to N4, 722 billion in 2016Q3;owing to 29.1 percent increase in exports and 6.2 percent rise in imports. Oil exports increased by 31 percent to N1, 943 billion, while non-oil exports increased by 20.5 percent to N440 billion. However, on the aggregate, Nigeria recorded yet another trade deficit of N104 billion, indicating continuous higher imports relative to exports. Overall, though there is improvement in the performance of non-oil sector, however, this is insufficient to effectively complement the loss in oil trade sustained since the beginning of oil price crash. This suggests that diversification into non-oil sector may not be able to rescue the economy in the short term. However, while the diversification efforts should be sustained, eliminating hurdles in oil production may be instrumental to higher exports, especially as oil price increase is gaining momentum.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 30)

Power sector analysis shows an increase in power generated by 3.01 percent from 2903.5mw to 2991.8mw between July 1, 2016 and July 8, 2016, with a peak of 3260.8mw on July 5, 2016. This is however, still below the highest (5074.7mw) recorded in February, 2016. The increase reflects improved use of hydro (water) for power generation. The easing out of gas constraint occasioned by recent pipeline repairs have also contributed to the increase in power generation. Improvements in power generation would be sustained if hydro measures are complemented with fast-tracked repairs on damaged gas channels and intensified efforts at tackling pipeline sabotage.