Policy Brief & Alerts

March 11, 2018

A Note On The Economic Downturn In Sub-Saharan Africa

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The recent movements in the dollar-naira exchange rate, following the removal of the currency peg, has stimulated ongoing debate in the media that South Africa has regained its position as the largest economy in Africa. The prevailing notion is that the depreciation of the naira and simultaneous appreciation of the rand against the US dollar implies that South Africa’s GDP has surpassed that of Nigeria. However, this argument needs some re-examination, given that the value of the GDP (in current US$) is sensitive to the choice of exchange rate and GDP figures used for its computation. This piece situates the present argument in the context of recent commodity market crisis and its implications for the two largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa



Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 52)

Recently released population estimate figures by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, show a significant increase in Nigerias population, based on the 2006 census. Notably, total population grew by an estimated 40 percent from 2006, to 193 million persons in 2016. Also, disaggregate demographic data from 2007 to 2016, reveals an increase in the number of males (74 million to 99 million) and females (71 million to 95 million), with a 2016 gender (males to females) percentage ratio of 51:49. The high rate of population growth can be attributed to the improvements in average annual rate of natural increase the difference between crude birth rate and death rate. As in preceding years, the composition of children and youths make up the highest share of the population growth. This presents a potential increase in the rate of labour supply. Going forward, there is need for the government to support rapid job creation in order to check the potential upsurge in unemployment rate.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 38)

Recent NBS data on Nigerias real GDP growth rate declined from -0.36 percent in 2016Q1 to -2.06 percent in 2016Q2. With negative GDP growth rate in two consecutive quarters, Nigeria records its first recession in 23 years. Both the oil and non-oil sectors continued to contract by -15.59 and -0.20 percentage points, respectively, relative to preceding quarter. The worsening growth rate in the oil sector was largely driven by the decline in domestic crude oil production by 14.5 percent relative to preceding quarter

Implementing The Fiscal Responsibility Act At The State Level In Nigeria

The paper explores the policy framework for implementing the FRA across the 36 states, and identifies the underlying macroeconomic principles required for the FRA to be effective at the state level.

Increasing Female School Enrollment In Nigeria: Some Policy Options

This brief examines two policy alternatives which government can adopt in order to increase the enrollment of girls in the primary school and also help eliminate gender disparity in Nigerian schools: Provide free primary education with Stipends or provide free primary education with Transportation.